Wednesday, February 13, 2008

An Object in Motion Tends to Stay in Motion

Barack Obama won three more contests yesterday, sweeping the "Potomac Primaries" (Maryland, Virginia, D.C.). He is really on a roll now, and has taken the lead in overall delegates (earned + super), 1,215 delegates to Clinton's 1,190.

Why is Obama doing so well? Let's look at some of the polling data from yesterday's primary.

1. Age

Obama won the votes of three-quarters of Virginia Democrats under age 30. He did better than Clinton in nearly every age group, although Clinton had stronger support among older voters. They were about even among senior citizens.

2. Gender and Race

Obama and Clinton tied among whites overall, and Obama won the votes of nine in 10 blacks in Virginia.

3. Economy

Obama easily beat Clinton among voters most concerned about the economy and about the war in Iraq. Clinton did best among voters who were most concerned about health care.

BTW, on the Republican side, where McCain continues to build on his already large lead over Huckabee, there was a poll question about what I had been referring to in the previous Rush Limbaugh post.

Voters who said they listened to conservative talk radio were more likely to vote for Huckabee, while non-listeners tended to support McCain. The more often people listened to conservative talk radio, the less likely they were to vote for McCain.

I can't believe the conservative talk radio people are willing to lose the election rather than having someone like McCain, a conservative who is willing to work with liberals and make compromises. Laura Ingraham was on Imus in the Morning yesterday, and refused to support McCain (although she said, that unlike some of you colleagues, she will NOT vote for the Democratic nominee). Maybe they feel burned by electing GW Bush, who certainly was NOT the conservative hero that he was touted to be.

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