Monday, May 12, 2008

Apple is On Fire!

Folks, if you haven't noticed, Apple's stock has been on a major tear over the past 2 months. It is close to it's all-time high again (all time high was around $200 in December).

I posted the story about the Apple stores being packed back in January ( And, although it initially was demolished along with the rest of the market for the first 10 weeks of 2008, it has made a major comeback.

The major reason for this has got to be the popularity of the iPhone. It is currently sold out on the Apple websites, and stock in the stores have been scant. The new, faster, "3G" iPhone is due out very soon, and customers around the world will be clamoring for it. That's right around the world. Read this article, and you will see that Apple has been inking some new major contracts with wireless providers in Canada, Europe, South America, Turkey, India, Australia, Singapore and the Phillipines. That means millions of new customers and billions of more revenue for Apple.

What does mean for the stock? As you know, I have been long of Apple for some time now. It is riding on top of its 10 day moving average (about as bullish as a stock can get). You can see this on the daily chart below (10 day moving average is the green line). You can see the stochastics confirm the very strong price action (RSI at top and MACD at bottom).

I expect Apple to continue a little higher, but I think it will find some resistance at it's all time high of about $200, as you can see on the weekly chart below. After a brief pull back, I think it will probably eventually break that resistance and head towards a price in the mid-250s. On the weekly stochastics, the RSI and MACD are heading up (circled blue areas). You can see that the RSI remained in the "overbought" area (>70) for some time last May through July and then last September and October (blue box). Thus, if the RSI can climb above 70 again, we could see some significant upside to come.

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