Good Week Bad Week

Good Week for:

1. Being a dumb enophile, after Steven Levitt from Freakonomics reported on his blog that two studies (one that he performed and one more recent from the American Association of Wine Economists) demonstrated that people who are not wine experts had a very hard time differentiating expensive from cheap wine (when blinded). Levitt recommends that no one should become a wine expert, so that you can save money yet still enjoy it. The mind is so powerful and thus can be such a nuisance.

2. Any enophile, after scientists at Hebrew University in Jerusalem found that animals fed red wine along with beef had much lower levels of fat-derived toxins in their blood than animals fed beef alone. This may explain the French paradox- the low rate of heart-disease among wine-drinking French despite a high-fat diet.

3. The Great White Shark, as Greg Norman entered the final round of the British Open with a 2 stroke lead. Why is this so remarkable? First, Norman would be the older person ever to win a major golf championship (previous record 46 years of age). Second, Norma has not even been on the radar in the world of golf for years. His last tour victory was in 1997. I hope Norman keeps this lead (he's lost 7 of 8 majors in which he held the lead entering the final round). Also, see my blog post on Norman from April.


Bad Week for:

1. Doing laundry, after a women in Maine discovered an 8 foot python mixed up with her load of clothes in her washing machine. It was successfully removed by an animal control expert.

2. Antartic inhabitants, after hundreds of baby penguins washed up dead on the shores of Rio de Janeiro. The reasons for why this is occuring is unknown. Some theorize that overfishing has forced penguins to swim futher from shore and get caught up in strong currents that carry them away, while others blame polution as many are found drenched in petroleum. I still think that the whole process that the Emperor Penguins engage in to mate and raise their young is one of the most amazing things in nature.

3. Fidel's concept of socialism, when Raul Castro said "Socialism means social justice and equality, but equality of rights, of opportunities, not of income." The new leader of Cuba has been loosening Fidel's iron grip, granting Cubans some new rights and privielges, such as the ability to buy consumer goods such as cellular phones, DVD players, and washing machines. Also, restrictions on foreign travel have been relaxed and farmers can decide for themselves what to plant. Now, it remains to be see how these people will be able to earn higher incomes in order to afford these "luxuries" (things we have taken for granted). The infrastructure to support entrepreneurship and capitalism still doesn't really exist. Thus, as access to the internet and international TV increases, there may be a social revolt, and young "capitalists" may flee the country for better economic opportunities.

Rebuttal

Oil plunged again today (as did natural gas, steel, coal, ag names- basically anything that has had a tremendous run over the past several months).

An avid reader of the blog stated the following in the comments section: "I just am dubious that all of your charts coalesced the same day, and oil buyers and sellers coincidentally decided to apply lower prices to oil the same day W said we'd finally act like Norway when it comes to oil drilling."

To this, I offer an alternative explanation as to why the precipitous drop in oil/energy/commodities. As Addison Armstrong, Tradition Energy Director Of Market Research explained tonight on Fast Money:

We’re seeing liquidation pure and simple, which is being driven by the weak balance sheets of the banks. They’ve been cleaning them up by raising cash and they’re doing that by selling oil and other commodities.”That suggests at least some investors are selling crude contracts even though they really don't want to be sellers

OK, listen, companies report earnings on a quarterly basis. A large number of companies, including some of the big financial institutions reported this week. The large brokerages, such as JP Morgan, Merrill Lynch, Citigroup are reporting (or have reported) earnings. These brokerages are (or were) invested heavily in commodities, including oil. Now, as you know, the stock prices of any financial company has been in absolute free-fall for the past year. So, how do these huge companies stop the bleeding? They sell what was working (commodity positions),
raise cash, improve the balance sheet, and report earnings that are better than expected. The selling of energy stocks/ETFs is the reason why the price of oil and energy started dropping, as shown in the chart in the previous post, well BEFORE President Bush made any announcements on offshore drilling. And, sad to say, this implies that the price of oil is NOT completely dependent on supply and demand, but instead was artificially elevated by speculators/investors. You cannot tell me that demand dropped and supply rose that precipitously in the past 2 weeks to cause the marked fall in price.

Also, for those who doubt the power of technical analysis, and for those who refer to the big price moves as "all of the charts coalescing in one day", I submit this point. Technicians (half of active traders) follow price action, and when something moves, the buying or selling is amplified if a key technical level is breached or broken.

For example, look at the chart of this stock, VVUS, below. It doesn't matter what the company does, but I will tell you that the company has nothing to do with oil or energy. Anyway, what caused it to move dramatically up in the middle of May and then the end of June into early July? Are you telling me that the fundamentals of this company changed TWICE within the span of 2
months? NO WAY. It was trading on technicals....the market watchers saw it "break out" of its trading range and piled in with loads of cash and scooped up this stock. Then, after taking a breather (consolidation) it resumed its remarkable run upward. This is classic momentum of a trading vehicle. And, all of oil and energy and commodities are publically traded, thus their price can move dramatically based on the money flow from hedge funds, mutual funds, institutional investors, and individual investors. So, I will give GW Bush ZERO credit for dropping the price of oil.

P.S. I don't want to clutter this with a new post, but 2 things Don. First, why does this chart of Freeport-McMoran, a gold and copper mining company, look almost identical to the oil/energy chart I posted? All of the commodities are moving together, nothing to do with the plan to drill. Second, the "sell signal" on the XLE energy ETF was made not on the day Bush made the announcement. It was made at the beginning of June when the price fell from 90 down through the 50 day moving average (the blue line that was in an uptrend). When it broke below 85.56 on June 3rd, that was a major bearish move, and the ensuing weakness was not unexpected. These are fundamental principles of technical analysis.

Random Musings

1. Israel is making a mistake by performing unequal hostage swaps. They exchanged 5 militant Lebanese prisoners for the remains of 2 Israeli soldiers. I know it is their moral code, but this will only encourage more kidnappings/killings of Israelis. They keep giving their enemies positive reinforcement with these exchanges. Dumb.

2. Double-standard on the N-word. I hate it. Read the story. Again, Jesse Jackson deserves no respect by the media or the population at large.

3. Score one for Dr. Aktins (and the Mediterraneans), as the low-carb (high-fat high-protein) and Mediterranean diets were found to be superior for weight loss to a low-fat diet after 2 years of follow-up.

4. The JibJab crew has another great political satire video. Very funny, as usual.

5. The price of oil fell sharply for the 2nd straight day. Jury is still out whether the long-term trend is still intact and this is a correction (just as all of the other commodities have corrected signficantly over the past few weeks). Also, few, if any, stories tied this week's decline to Bush's wonderful announcement about moving forward with plans to drill offshore. In fact, given the drop in consumption (driving and flying have decreased, companies are figuring out more efficient ways to transport goods), it may be that the decreased demand has increased supply, thus decreasing the price of oil. Furthermore, the continued panic about further economic downturns in the US and around the world is not bullish for the price of oil. The prices of oil are also driven by the large amount of ETFs that are tied to commodities. Investors looking for a safe-haven in this bear market that has ravished the financial sector have moved lots of money to energy stocks/ETFs. However, as witnessed by the monster rally in the stock market today, led by the 10% surge in financials, it appears that sector rotation is taking place, and money is shifting back from energy to financials. I wonder, did Bush's announcement of drilling offshore also fuel the rally in the financial sector today.

Also, let's look at the chart of the XLE (iShares Energy ETF). From a technical analysis standpoint, energy has been weakening for the past several weeks. The chart was calling for this sell-off. Why?

1. RSI at top of chart has been very weak.

2. Double top formed in main price action

3. MACD (another momentum indicator) has been very weak/declining for weeks.

4. Money flow indicators (On balance volume and Chalkin money flow, both at bottom of chart) indicate that net flow of money has been OUT of energy since the end of May/early June.

So, the announcement by Bush to drill offshore was like punching a man while he was already beaten up and laying on the ground bleeding. Of course, people are going to give him the credit for dropping the price of oil. The timing and the chart do NOT support this whatsoever.

Good Week Bad Week

Good week for:

Not much


Bad week for:

1. Tilapia, after a Wake Forest University study found that tilapia, a farm-raised corn-fed fish, actually contains high levels of omega-6 fatty acids (pro-inflammatory) and very little omega-3 fatty acids. In fact, tilapia contains more omega-6 than bacon or doughnuts. I'm still waiting for the transgenic pigs rich in omega-3 to come to market. Yummy and healthy!

2. The Clydesdale, the symbol of American and Anheuser-Busch, after the St. Louis-based company was sold to the Belgian company InBev (makers of Stella Artois and Becks). My first concern is what will happen to the Budweiser Super Bowl commericials. Will they continue???

3. Following your father's lead, after George W. Bush lifted an executive ban on offshore drilling that was put in place by his father in 1990. Just a few years after his "addicted to oil" speech, George just wants another hit of the pipe (forward to about 5 min 30 secs on this video for some laughs). As I've outlined before, the government's own studies have indicated that this manuever would have little effect on the price of oil...we will follow closely. I doubt this will have much of an effect.

4. Humans, after a 149-page scientific report from the government oulined many reasons why global warming will impact health, including an increase in smog (increases risk of death), heat waves, infectious diseases (particularly those carried by ticks), and from wildfires. It's too bad the White House officials didn't even want to read the report...they wouldn't open the email!!

5. The Colonel, after a police-officer's family in Omaha won $40,000 in a lawsuit against KFC because of an episode of severe illness after eating at the fast-food chain. The cause of illness? Employees at this KFC would routinely spit and urinate onto food to create "special servings" reserved for police officers. This hasn't been a good year for KFC. As you may recall, earlier this year a KFC in NYC was shut-down after video taken from the street showed several huge rats crawling around premises.

6. The Bull, after the stock market entered official Bear Market territory (down 2o% from recent highs). Ugghhhh....

Shots on the Left and Right

Well, well...it seems both of the Presidential candidates are dealing with remarks that people "close" to their party have made.

Regarding Barack Obama, Jesse Jackson said another "memorable" (AKA ludicrous) thing. He said that "Obama is talking down to black people", and that he wants to "cut his nuts off". Watch Jesse make a little cut motion with his right arm immediately after he states it. The funny thing is that his apology pretty much consisted of him saying that he didn't know the microphone was on. What kind of excuse is that?!?!? Jesse Jackson is so pathetic. He has made a career of grabbing the spotlight on controversial issues and pretends to "crusade" for his people. Blacks don't even like him. He never could get even 5% of the vote in the primaries when he ran for the Democratic Party nominee for President. I don't even know why people interview him. Does anyone care what he has to say?

Oh, by the way, the quote from Obama that Jesse so inflamed? Here it is:

``Any fool can have a child. That doesn't make you a father,'' Obama, 46,
said at the Apostolic Church of God, which has more than 20,000 members. ``Too
many fathers are AWOL, missing from too many lives and too many homes.''

Good for you Barack...you're just telling the truth and trying to inspire some sense of responsibility in young black men, just like Bill Cosby and Charles Barkley have been trying to do for the past several years. Keep it up.

McCain's issue is a little less exciting. Former Senator Phil Gramm, one of McCain's economic advisors, said in an interview with the Washington Post that the economy is not so bad and that we have a "nation of whiners". McCain tried to distance himself from Gramm and showed his distaste for those comments. And check out where he wanted to send Mr. Gramm...

"I don't agree with Sen. Gramm," McCain said. "I believe that the person
here in Michigan that just lost his job isn't suffering a mental recession. I
believe the mother here in Michigan and around America who is trying to get
enough money to educate their children isn't whining."
"Phil Gramm does not speak for me," he said. "I speak for me."

Asked if there was any chance Gramm would be treasury secretary or
handle economic policy under a McCain administration, McCain quickly turned to
humor. "I think Sen. Gramm would be in serious consideration for ambassador to
Belarus, although I'm not sure the citizens of Minsk would welcome that," he
said.

I don't have too much to say about this. Obviously, McCain cannot openly agree with Gramm. That would be complete political suicide, as most polls show the economy is the number issue for voters at this time. Plus, the economy IS a big issue right now, isn't it???? GDP is nearly stagnant, fuel and food prices are at all-time highs, job losses are increasing, and our dollar is pathetically weak.

Things I Just Don't Get

1. Why do people need to drive Hummers? I saw two tonight in a parking lot. This is CONNECTICUT, not the jungle or the deserts in the Middle East. It's a free country, and people can choose do drive whatever they want, but I still don't understand the mentality of the owners. They must be trying to make up for inadequate genital size. At least the high costs of fuel have caused a decrease in overall driving in the US and in SUV/light truck sales, so supply/demand continues to work efficiently.

2. Why is the American Academy of Pediatrics recommending cholesterol screening and treatment with statins starting at age 8? Granted, the amount of childhood obesity is continually increasing and leading to premature diabetes and heart disease, but why not strongly push exercise and healthy diets? The problem is partially genetic, but the creep of adult cardiac diseases into childhood is NOT from genetics, it is from poor behavioral patterns. I think we need a prominent athelete to take a cabinet position such as a "Secretary of Fitness". Recruit Michael Jordan or Magic Johnson for this position...or someone else that could really inspire kids to get off their butts, stop playing so many video games and start exercising. I do not think a lifetime of blood tests (to check cholesterol levels and monitor liver function) and 70+ years of exposure to statins (if they live that long) is a smart idea.

3. Why can tennis players hit a screeching 1st serve well over 100 times in a match and play every other day when baseball pitchers are babied and routinely are pulled when they throw about 100 pitches? The tennis players are swinging their arm and putting as much torque on their rotator cuff as major league pitchers. The serves in tennis often exceed 120 MPH. Then add all of the 2nd serves, forehands, and backhands to the total load on the shoulder. I think the current day major league pitchers are coddled far too much. Back in the day, it was commonplace for the great pitchers such as Koufax, Gibson, Drysdale, etc. to have more than 20 complete games. In 1968, Bob Gibson had 28 complete games!! Now, a pitcher is considered to have an amazing year if they have 3-4 complete games. They are put on strict "pitch counts" and pulled in the 6th or 7th inning. Then, starting pitchers get 4-5 days off until their next start. FYI, Nadal had 221 1st serves and Federer had 197 1st serves in their final match at Wimbledon yesterday!

4. How did the Colombian hostages surive after living in the jungle, eating terribly, being tortured, and experiencing severe infections for 5 1/2 years? It is an amazing story of human determination.

Don't "Aks", Don't tell

Freakonomics is one of my favorite books, and lucky for me (and the world), Levitt and Dubner have continued their analyses of the culture on the NYTimes opinion page. They have a very interesting post regarding a U of Chicago study that examined whether sounding black (or Southern) influences one's salary. The study found that people who sounded black, as judged over the phone, earned 10% less than those who sounded white. Blacks who "sounded white" earned roughly the same amount as their white counterparts.

This is very interesting, as it provides ongoing evidence of racial discrimination in the U.S. This is unacceptable. However, while I do not condone any racial discrimination, common sense also tells us that speaking "ebonics" is not exactly compatible with a highly productive business/sales model. Furthermore, only the minority of blacks actually speak ebonics, but it only takes a few bad eggs to ruin it for the larger group and promote long-lasting stereotypes. Simply put, slang will never be widely accepted, and PARENTS and the school systems must do their best to teach children proper English. Bill Cosby had an excellent rant about this a few years ago. I agree with Bill.

We are on the precipice of potentially electing a black president of the United States for the first time. Many racial barriers in this country have been obliterated. Thus, it is not too much to ask our future generations, of any racial background, to speak English properly.

Nadal Ends Federer's Streak- Wins Wimbledon

Today, Rafael Nadal of Spain, beat Roger Federer of Switzerland in one of the most amazing sporting events I have ever seen. It was an epic battle, the longest Wimbledon Men's final EVER at 4 hours 48 minutes. It didn't end until 4:15 EST (started at 9 AM....there were 2 rain delays).

The match itself was extremely intense. It was filled with drama. The last 3 sets all went to either tie-breakers or were extended (last set goes until someone wins by 2) after Nadal took an early 2 set lead. I hope many of you got to see it today. If you haven't...don't fret. ESPN Classic will be showing this "Instant Classic" at 7 PM Monday night. Aside from it being such a brilliantly played, intense, and exciting match, the drama was heightened even more by the story of these two giants entering this final match.

Consider these facts:

1. Federer had won FIVE straight Wimbledon titles, and won 40 straight matches at Wimbledon.
2. Federer had not lost ONE SET this entire tournament.

3. Nadal had lost the last 2 Wimbledon finals to Federer.

4. Despite Nadal's domination of Federer on clay, and his 4 French Open titles, Nadal had never beaten Federer in a major tournament except for the French.

5. Coming into the match, Federer has been ranked #1 in the ATP rankings for 231 consecutive weeks. Nadal has been ranked #2 for 154 weeks.

6. Nadal became the first to win the French Open and Wimbledon in the same year since 1980 (Borg).

The match certainly lived up to the hype and beyond. It was like Maximus vs. Commodus in the movie Gladiator. It was like Achilles vs. Hector in the movie Troy.

It had me thinking about the 10 best sports finals I have ever seen. Please add or argue with some of the choices on this list in the comments section. (they are not ranked in order)

1. Nadal defeats Federer, 2008 Wimbledon Final

2. NY Giants defeat the undefeated NE Patriots, Super Bowl XLII. The prologue to this game again contributed significantly to the greatness of this game. The Patriots were on the verge of an undeprecedented, historical undefeated season. The Giants were truly "David", who had been given little chance to win after a tumultuous season. However, sans Tiki Barber, and in Michael Strahan's final game, the G-Men shut down the mightly Patriots offense and won on one of the most dramatic drives in Super Bowl history.

3. Boston Red Sox defeat NY Yankees, 2004 AL Championship Series. Again, what a storyline entering this playoff series. The Red Sox had been without a World Series title in 86 years, while the Yankees had 26 World Series titles. The Red Sox had lost a bitterly contested playoff series in 2003 to the Yankees, that culminated with an 11th inning homerun by Aaron Boone, of all people, to put the final nail in the Sox that year. However, the 2004 series was magical for the Sox, as they battled back from a 3-0 deficit to win the final 4 games. Games 4, 5, and 6 were absolute classics, as game 4 and 5 were the 2 longest in ACLS history, going into the 12th and 14th innnings, respectively. Both wins involved blown saves by the best closer in history, Mariano Rivera. Game 6 was the Schilling "bloody sock" game. Game 7 was a blow-out, but occurred in the "House that Ruth Built", finally ending the Curse of the Bambino.

4. Villanova Wildcats defeat the Georgetown Hoyas, 1985 NCAA Mens College BB Championship. This was another David vs. Goliath match-up. The 8th seeded Wildcats shot 78.6% from the field, shut down the mighty Patrick Ewing, and pulled off one of the greatest upsets in NCAA history. I still remember little Rollie Massimino being mobbed in jubilation by his much taller teammates as time expired.

5. Texas Longhorns defeat USC Trojans, 2006 BSC Championship. There was no David vs. Goliath here...it was Goliath vs. Goliath. The Trojans had won 34 striaght games and were going for their 3rd straight NCAA title. The Trojans had the exhilarating Reggie Bush. The Longhorns had won 20 straight and had the powerful quarterback Vince Young. The play was incredible, and the ending was a thriller, with Texas pulling it out in a shootout, 41-38.

6. NY Mets defeat Boston Red Sox, 1986 World Series. The Mets had just finished pulling out a dramatic 6 game series with the Houston Astros, that including 3 extra-inning nailbiters, including the final game that went 16 innings. The Red Sox had just defeated the Angels after being one strike away from being eliminated in Game 5 on a dramatic home run by Dave Henderson to tie the game and send it into extra innings. The Red Sox came in to the WS looking for their first title since 1918. This series makes my list primarily for Game 6. I've outlined the drama of this game before on this blog here, so I won't do it again.

7. Boise State defeats Oklahoma Sooners, 2007 Fiesta Bowl. OK, this wasn't for the BSC Championship, but the game itself was probably the most dramatic college FB games I've ever seen. Boise St went into the 4th quarter with a 28-17 lead. Oklahoma scored 11 points (FG and TD + 2pt conversion) to tie the game with 1:26 left in 4th qtr. Boise St comes out to try to march down the field for a FG, and their QB gets picked-off, and the Sooner DB returns it for a 33 yd interception TD return. Game over, right? Wrong! On 4th and 18, down 7 points, Boise St complete a 50 yard "hook-and-ladder play" to tie the game with 7 seconds left. The games goes to OT, and Adrian Peterson takes the 1st handoff and races 25 yards for a go-ahead TD. Boise St, needing a TD to tie, gets a TD, and decides to go for the 2 pt conversion. They run a "Statue of Liberty" play for the 2 point conversion. Unbelievable.

I'm going to stop here for now...I will try to add 3 more games to this list. Please provide your suggestions.

Runaway Chimp

OK, just a quick news piece. It is an unbelievable story. The story initially caught my eye because the link on the front page of CNN.com read "Toilet trained Chimp on the Loose". Given my fascination with toilets, I eagerly clicked on the link to read the story. He apparently can not only use the toilet, but can use a knife and fork.

A couple in California had raised the chimp for 30 years in their house until he was taken away for his violent behavior. There were distraut today when they heard he escaped and hired a search helicopter to find him. The chimp was taken away from the couple because he had bitten off someone's finger and mauled a policeman's hand.

Here are the hilarious things. First read about what happened to the couple when they were visiting him after he was taken away from them:

In 2005, when they took a cake to celebrate Moe's birthday with him, the
couple was viciously attacked by two other chimpanzees who had escaped their
cages. The chimps nearly killed St. James Davis, chewing off his nose, testicles
and foot and biting off chunks of his buttocks and legs, before the sanctuary owner shot the animals to death.

The other thing that made me laugh was when the man who owned him (the one who had his testicles chewed off), said the following to the media:

"He meant the world to us," St. James Davis said. "He was the best man at my wedding."

Good Week Bad Week

Good week for:

1. Espana, after their national soccer team beat the Germans 1-0 in the Euro Cup Final yesterday. Spain had not won the title in over 44 years. The celebrations were wild in Spain overnight. Let's call it the world's largest fiesta!!!

2. Caged animals, when a giraffe helped 15 camels, 2 zebras, multiple llamas, and a pig escape from their cage at the traveling Dutch circus. That must have been quite a site to see these animals wandering through the town. Have you all seen the episode of Man vs. Wild when Bear Grylls guts a dead camel in the desert and lays down within it's carcass to show us how to protect ourselves from a sandstorm?

3. The people of earth, as a recent study found that happiness around the world (at least in 40 of the 52 countries studied over the time period 1981-2007) is increasing. The reasons why sunny disposition is increasing around the world are listed here:

Low-income countries such as India and China have experienced unprecedented
rates of economic growth; dozens of medium-income countries have democratized;
and there has been a sharp rise of gender equality and tolerance of ethnic
minorities and gays and lesbians in developed societies.

Bad week for:

1. Appeals, when Floyd Landis' bid to reclaim his Tour de France title was again denied by the courts. One of the best accounts I have come across of what might have happened, and the indisputable results of his urine testosterone tests is here. Floyd, give it up, and go join Roger Clemens in the "I have the worst defense ever against the evidence of the use of performance enhancing drugs" club.

2. Trying to sell your life, when an Australian man put his life up for sale on E-bay. He ended up selling his house, all his possessions, a trial spot for his job, and all of his contacts for about $382,000. Apparently, he was looking for $480,000. He was upset about the bad breakup he had with his wife and thus, was trying to start his life fresh. Another woman was trying to sell her house and heart on the internet. But, to me the all-time best utilization of the internet for one's prosperity was the young fellow in Canada who sold and bartered his way from a red paper clip all the way to a house in 14 separate trades. This guy was amazing. Please read about each trade by clicking on the photos at the top. My favorite trades revolved around Alice Cooper, but there were such funny offers for the apartment in Phoenix when the trade was still in question. Unfortunately, it looks like those offers are not archived on the website. One of the offers that I remember was a 24-hour lap dance from a Japanese stripper. No one can dance like that for 24 straight hours!! Plus, I don't think that would even be enjoyable for the guy...enough already!

3. Eating more (well, unless you live in Japan), as researchers at University of Texas Southwestern found that injecting latex into the face of cadavers decreased the aged look of a face and made the faces look younger. So, listen to your grandmothers, eat a 2nd helping, and plump up those cheeks!

More on govenmental control (e.g., fat tax)

I started typing this as another comment in repsonse to the previous post, but I figured that since I had so much to say (and it's my blog), that I'd start a whole new post here on this issue, because so many other issues are brought up in my reply. Here is the reply:

Wow, this is certainly one of the most controversial and discussed topics on this blog. I appreciate all of the banter and the really good points brought up by everybody.

R. Waterhouse brings up fantastic points about civil liberties, and where to draw the line on other "dangerous" activities, such as promiscuous sex.

This is such a complex issue. Certainly, the most FAIR system would be NO entitlements and people paying for the consequences of their own indiscretions. There is a huge part of my internal psyche that feels it should be this way.

Then, the other part of my psyche that ends up causing me cognitive dissonance, is that as human beings, we cannot be completely selfish and we should help out the less fortunate. As pointed out by Kath, behaviors that may seem to be solely personal choice are considered by the medical community as "diseases" (e.g., alcoholism, drug addiction). The fact is, that too many people have some sort of combination of being either too "diseased", too weak, or too stupid not to get themselves in trouble with the evil pleasures in life. Thus, sometimes it behooves a government to try to willfully impose a kind of restriction, tax, or punishment for those behaviors. But that results in the predictament of the slippery slope of reaching a point of too much governmental control. I agree with Will that the banning of trans-fats and smoking in public places are probably good policies.

I think the only answer is some kind of balance. This argument can last forever. One of the classic examples is the whole "war on drugs" by the government. Why should we ban any drugs? I can make plenty of good arguments for abolishing all of the rules on drugs. Why should smoking pot, doing cocaine, doing heroin, or any other drug be illegal? The DEA and the billions of dollars spent on the war on drugs has largely been a waste. These drugs are still widely abused, and, one can argue, that making the drugs illegal has increased harm to society in terms of violence and costs of trials and imprisonments. If drugs were legal, there would be no drug lords. There would be less shootings over drug deals gone awry. The police force could be smaller. Our jails would have more room. There would be fewer trials funded by public monies to try to imprison and sentence these folks. Finally, drugs could be sold and taxed just like cigarettes, which would give the government more revenues to spend on more worthwhile causes.

Arguments can also be made in the other direction. Why is alcohol and tobacco legal, while the other drugs are not? Many more thousands of people die each year as a result of alcohol and tobacco, than all of marijuana, cocaine, heroin combined. If the government wanted to keep people safe, then they should ban alcohol and tobacco first, and then worry about the other drugs, and other things like fatty foods.

I don't have the best answer for how much governmental control is appropriate for all of these issues. In the end, or for the time being, I think that federalism (state's rights) might be best. I think it is best for the issue of gay marriage, and it may provide some semblance of a solution. Why? Because it would not require people to leave the country if their idea of appopriate governmental control was the complete opposite of their beliefs.

There could be gun-toting states and non-gun toting states. States that allow gay marriage and states that don't. States that ban drugs and states that don't. States that despise moral hazard and believe in pay for your own regarding healthcare, and states that believe health care should be a collective cost. I'm sure there would be plenty of comments about this as well from both sides (e.g., "poor people won't be able to be as mobile and move to another state" or "the country would be too fractured to run efficiently") but, really, many of the important issues are determined at a state level (e.g., death penalty, gay marriage, rules on abortion timing, etc).

Supreme Court Bans Death Penalty for Child Rape

In a 5-4 decision today, the Supreme Court ruled against dealth penalty for child rape. FYI, 6 states currently allowed the death penalty for this type of crime, although it has been 44 years since anyone in the US has been executed for a non-murder offense.

I have mixed feelings about this decision, because I think child rape is one of the most horrific crimes that can be perpetrated by any human being. However, I do think the court came to the right decision. The biggest argument for employing the dealth penalty in these situations would be to deter future heinous crimes by the violent and ill individual. However, these people are so mentally warped that I do not think any type of consequence will stop them from committing this type of violent crime.

The argument to execute the offender as a punishment for the crime does not hold water. The child is definitely scarred for life (as is the family), but the death of the perpetrator does nothing to rid the victim or their families of the terrible memories of this horrid event. It only gives a quick, one-time feeling of satification due to a false sense of redemtion.

Don't get me wrong, I do not think these people have a good chance at "rehabilitation". Data from multiple studies indicate that the recividism rate for these types of crimes is near 50% and often exceeds that, depsite psychiatric counseling. Thus, these people will always be a risk to society. However, because the risk of repeat crimes is not 100%, execution is not the answer. Instead, they should be locked up for life. And, from what I hear from my trainer at the gym (don't ask), these people get their "due" when they are incarcerated. To me, that's better punishment than peacefully dying from a potassium chloride injection.

Let us know what you think.

Fat Tax- Japanese Style

Japan has instituted a "fat tax". Their government is imposing heavy fines (in the millions) for private corporations and local governments that have overweight employees on their payrolls. How do they determine if someone is overweight? The measurement of the waistline must be no more than 33.5 inches for men and 35.4 inches for women. The goal of the new law is to decrease their overweight population by 10% over 4 years and 25% over 7 years.

I think this is quite an ambitious goal, especially for the country that already exhibits excellent cardiovascular health and longevity. However, I will be very interested in the results of this initiative. Will the Japanese government have its goals met?

I think it may have a positive effect. There is nothing that drives people more than adverse consequences, and because of the steep fines set as punishment, I would expect Japanese citizens to increase their vigilance towards calorie reduction and increase their calorie expenditure via exercise.

Would this work in the United States, where obesity is a much bigger problem than in Japan? I'm not sure, but if monetary fines and possibly the threat of losing employment are enforced, then it may. Certainly, the Japanese will likely have an easier time at accomplishing their goal because of their nationalized health care system, the general hardworking/no nonsense nature of their citizens, and their baseline diet, which is highly dependent on seafood.

If it does work in Japan, then I think lawmakers should consider some type of similar system here. Obesity is simply exploding in the U.S. over the past 20 years. It is crushing our health care system because of the multitude of medical problems, and thus medical expenses, associated with obesity. Here's just a short list of problems that are obesity-related: diabetes, hypertension, obstructive sleep apnea, osteoarthritis, polycystic ovarian disease, increased triglycerides, fatty liver, breast cancer (possibly), gallstones, gout, pancreatitis. The problem with most of these conditions is that many of them lead to coronary artery disease, stroke, kidney disease, and congestive heart failure.

Something must be done, and public awareness has not been a sufficient impetus thus far. Perhaps we should institute a radial "fat tax" plan akin to our Japanese comrades. Although, I better watch out, because my waistline would certainly qualify me for a fine under Japanese rules!!

Tom Friedman's Salvo

I've been harping on energy policy these past few weeks. One of my favorite writers, Tom Friedman has a nice opinion piece in the NYT and seems to take the same side of my argument, only with more elegance.

Here are some excerpts:

Regarding Bush's call for more drilling:

"It’s as if our addict-in-chief is saying to us: “C’mon guys, you know you
want a little more of the good stuff. One more hit, baby. Just one more toke on
the ole oil pipe. I promise, next year, we’ll all go straight. I’ll even put a
wind turbine on my presidential library. But for now, give me one more pop from
that drill, please, baby. Just one more transfusion of that sweet offshore
crude.”

He reminds us that bill H.R. 6049 — “The Renewable Energy and Job Creation Act of 2008,” which extends for another eight years the investment tax credit for installing solar energy and extends for one year the production tax credit for producing wind power and for three years the credits for geothermal, wave energy and other renewables, is set to expire. Senate Republicans have blocked the bill six times. Why do we only give tax credits to oil companies??!?!?!?!

Regarding what Bush should say to the country:

“Oil is poisoning our climate and our geopolitics, and here is how we’re going
to break our addiction: We’re going to set a floor price of $4.50 a gallon for
gasoline and $100 a barrel for oil. And that floor price is going to trigger
massive investments in renewable energy — particularly wind, solar panels and
solar thermal. And we’re also going to go on a crash program to dramatically
increase energy efficiency, to drive conservation to a whole new level and to
build more nuclear power. And I want every Democrat and every Republican to join
me in this endeavor.”

I completely agree. Remember, the Department of Energy's own study found that drilling in ANWR would only decrease the price of oil by 75 cents per barrel. And a study by the Energy Information Administration found that drilling offshore in the Atlantic, Pacific, and Gulf of Mexico would have no significant impact on the price of oil.

Follow this link and send an electronic petition to congress to stop plans for more drilling on the coasts.

Good Week Bad Week

Good week for:

1. Having adequate “support”, as an American hiker who fell and was trapped in the Alps, used her sports bra to signal others to call for help. She attached her bra to a cable near the ledge on which she was stranded, which eventually caught the eye of a worker at the base of the mountain. I can see the new Discovery Channel show, “Woman vs. Wild." That should garner some good ratings, at least among the male, 12-89 years old demographic.

2. Laughing very hard, as this week, NBC will start airing episodes of some crazy Japanese shows. My favorite has got to be this show, where if you get the question wrong, a huge spatula on a spring-loaded lever is released to hit the contestant in the groin. Check out the first episode tomorrow (6/24) at 8 pm.

Bad week for:

1. Faking it, when “Justine”, one of the partners in a same-sex male couple, dressed as a female for a courthouse marriage ceremony in Virginia. Officials several weeks later investigated the situation and determined that Justine was really named Justin. Those are some slow moving baliffs in Virginia. Did it really take them that long to realize something was amiss?

2. Calling the pot black, when it was revealed that Al Gore’s energy consumption actually rose 10% in 2007, despite installation of solar panels and more efficient light bulbs. The kicker is that Gore’s MONTHLY energy consumption is 50% more than the average ANNUAL consumption of Americans. Gore was already called out for his hypocrisy about 1 year ago, when it was determined that his electric bill was over $16,000 per month. What exactly is he doing in that house? He needs to be setting a better example, because these stories are completely embarassing for his whole mission.

3. Being constipated, as a 6 foot python slithered through the sewer pipes and appeared in the toilet of a man’s highrise apartment in Australia. At least his pipes were cleaned out...no need to call Roto-rooter.

The Russert Rainbow

Just finished watching the replay of the memorial service held at the Kennedy Center today for Tim Russert. His son Luke gave a great speech. He has inherited his father's oratory skills.

Bruce Springsteen joined the all-star group via satellite from Europe and told a story about Tim and then played a beautiful version of "Thunder Road".


That was the end of the 90 minute memorial, and at the close, they played "Somewhere Over the Rainbow" on the PA system. As the attendees left the Kennedy Center, they walked out to see a majestic double rainbow in the sky above them. Watch this video from the 7 minute 30 second mark to see more about this. It was quite a poignant image. Watch the whole video to see highlights of the eulogies from the ceremony.

What a year for Beantown

The Boston Celtics clobbered the LA Lakers tonight in the 6th game of the NBA finals to win the championship. It has been an absolutely phenomenal year for Boston sports franchises. The Red Sox won the 2007 World Series in a 4 game sweep over the Rockies. The Patriots dominated the NFL and were within a fingernail's length of an unprescendented 19-0 season, only to lose the Super Bowl on the final drive against the NY Giants.

Finally, the Celtics, led by their big 3 (Garnett, Allen, Pierce) dominated the NBA and defeated their old rivals from the 80s, the LA Lakers.

I acknowledge that the game was a blow-out tonight, but I thought the post-game celebration by the crowd and players was a little subdued. Maybe it's just relative, because I was just watching game 7 of the 1984 finals between Boston and LA on the NBA Network yesterday, and the mayhem that ensued at the end of the game was unbelievable (forward to about 2 min 15 seconds of this video to see the wild celebration. Watch Larry Bird run for his life towards the tunnel to avoid getting completely swamped by the flood of fans on the court).

OK, so maybe there is better crowd control these days, but it just sure seemed like the fans knew how to have a super celebration back then. Maybe it was those short shorts and wild hairdos that stirred them into a frenzy.

Don and Timmy

I listened to the Imus in the Morning program on Monday morning. Imus was respectful, and said some nice things about Tim Russert in the first 5 minutes of the show, but his tone was frankly not as somber as I would have expected for someone he had on the show greater than 15o times over the past 10+ years. Here's the link to the podcast (click on link to show from 6/16 in the playbox on the right of the page).

The best part of the show were the guests that came on, such as Mike Barnicle and James Carville, Mary Matalin, Joe Leiberman, and Howard Kurtz. The guests were much more emotional and told much more touching stories about Tim (that made me cry, again) than anyone from the Imus crew. Charles, who used to have Thanksgiving dinner with the Russerts, said about 10 words about Russert (something to the effect of "it's surreal...it doesn't seem possible"). Bernie (the producer of the show), said some brief nice words about how Tim would ask him how his father was doing.

Within 5 minutes of the start of the show, Imus and Warner Wolf were joking about the NBA Finals and PGA Championship. Throughout the rest of the show, in between interviews, they were having their usual small talk and were telling jokes. Imus was also very concerned about getting to listen to the playoff between Tiger Woods and Rocco Mediate on satellite radio while in the car as he drove to the airport later that day.

I don't know, maybe I was expecting too much of Imus. Maybe I'm a big sap by being so sad about someone that I loved watching and listening to so much, compared to someone that Imus used to talk to at least every month.

Regarding the whole "controversy" surrounding his firing, Imus said that there was never any question that he would have Russert back on the show, despite what many people were saying. Later in the show, he did say they had a "complicated relationship", but there was "no one else to put on the show." Imus did say that of the 150+ plus times on the show, he was never "awful."
If you want to hear true sincerity and respect for The Man, listen to the interviews with Barnicle (25.5 minutes in) and Carville (79 minutes in).

I was initially a little upset about Russert's lack of public support for Imus after the scandal. However, Carville, during his interview, stated repeatedly how much Russert loved Imus and the whole team and that he called Carville repeatedly with ideas to help out Imus. It is clear to me that Russert was given a gag order by NBC and that he never diminished his loyalty for his friend, Don Imus. I should have never doubted him. I'm sorry Tim.

Same-Sex Marriage

Warning: This is a controversial topic.

I got an email today from some organization urging me to help "Stop Same-Sex Marriage in California". The email was asking for money to fight this battle, and stated:

We need resources to fight back, to stand up for God's own truth, for
common sense, for marriage as the union of husband and wife, and for the next
generation's right to know and be known by their own mother and father.

Ok, here is my quick and simple stance on this.

1. I think the fact that same-sex couples are allowed to get legally married does not make one single iota of difference to any heterosexual couple in the world. The strength of their relationship, the validity of their marriage is not impacted whatsoever by homosexuals being able to share the same rights.

2. People should spend more time worrying about fixing their own relationships rather than telling other people who to love and how to love them.

3. Just because same-sex marriages are recognized by the State of California, and maybe by all 50 states some day, does not mean any religious organization has to recognize it.

4. People are worried about the children of these same-sex couples. Well, study after study has shown that children of same-sex couples do just as well as any other children in terms of self-esteem, gender identity or emotional health.

5. I think children of a loving same-sex couple may be more lucky than children born to a heterosexual couple but raised by a single parent with the other parent uninvolved in their care. I was happy to see Obama urging black fathers to become more involved in raising their children. This is what people should be upset about....fathers who abandon their children.

6. Do you think homosexuals are purposely choosing to be "different" and to rebel against societal norms? I don't think so. I don't think they can help it. As evidence, watch these videos from 60 Minutes that explores the origins of homosexuality. You will think twice about criticizing homosexuals for their "choice" (note the video of the 3 year old boy who would rather play with Barbies than toy cars/trucks).

7. Do people think keeping a ban on gay marriage is going to prevent the already thousands to millions of same-sex couples from having romantic relationships? No way.

Energy (continued)

I have to get my mind off of Tim Russert. So, let me come back to a very lively topic that garnered 11 comments to my recent post.

I have posted the evidence that drilling in ANWR will not yield oil for 10 years and will only lower the cost of oil by a few dollars per barrel. I think it would be foolish in the year 2008, to start a multi-billion dollar project in the the very north of pristine Alaska to squeeze out a relatively small amount of oil compared to our overall consumption.

Instead, if the money spent to on the ANWR project went to tax credits to privately-owned companies that focus on non-fossil fuel energy sources, I think it would do a lot more for the overall energy picture. Or, at least shift over the $10 billion in government (tax-payer) subsidies from oil companies to alternative energy companies. It is absolutely ludicrous that these companies are still getting all these subsidies while making record profits at our expense.

I think it it foolish to try to increase the extraction and consumption of a natural resource that will eventually be depleted, when instead we can focus efforts on energy sources that are LIMITLESS (solar, wind, nuclear), clean, and easily attainable. It seems like such an easy choice. Plus, we can also work on decreasing consumption.

This is not a far-off pipe dream. GM is coming out with it's plug-in hybrid that can go 40 miles without using any gas, and can get 640 miles on only 12 gallons of gas. Tesla motors is coming out with an electric sports car that is 100% electric, goes 0-60 in 3.9 seconds, and gets an "equivalent" of 135 mpg.

What is not cool about that type of technology? Doesn't that feel better than burning oil? It is like non-fat ice cream...guilt free. You still can have your sexy fast car and not pollute the earth. And, remember, drivers of fuel-efficient cars are more likely to pick up women.

"Our Issues This Sunday"

Tim Russert started every episode of MTP with those 4 words. In his exhuberant tone, he would recite the issues he planned to discuss during the current week's episode, as the ultra-dramatic music blared in the background.

Today, the Moderator's chair was empty. Instead, Tom Brokaw chaired a special episode of MTP along with some of the regular guests and close friends of Tim. I just finished watching the taped version (missed it this morning because of work). It was tremendous. Please watch it here if you haven't done so. NBC will have to find a new host for MTP, but it will be nearly impossible to fill the big shoes of Mr. Russert.

I don't think I've ever been more sad about any famous person's death. I think Russert was one of the most influential persons in the United States. Think about it...he had anyone who was anyone on his show every week. He had every major candidate for President in the past 17 years on his show. He made the candidates better, because they truly had to think out the issues. They weren't going to pull a fast one over on Tim. He set the standard for Sunday morning shows. He brought the truth to the masses watching at home.

Then, there was all of the people he mentored at NBC. From what I have heard from them in their interviews, he seemed to be an amazing mentor and teacher. Finally, he has touched millions of people with his books "Big Russ and Me" and "Wisdom of Our Fathers", and through his writings he helped strengthen relationships between fathers and sons across the nation.

At the end of the special episode today, they closed with a video montage set to Bruce Springsteen's "Thunder Road". It is a tearjerker. The Boss dedicated the song to Tim at his show last night in Europe.

Russert and Father's Day

Tim Russert was NBC Washington Bureau Chief and moderator of Meet the Press, but he is also known for his books about fathers. Here is a touching tribute by Chuck Todd from NBC about how Tim was always concerned about his colleagues and their relationships with their families.

Imus and Russert

As I said in an earlier post, I will be listening to the Imus in the Morning show with gusto on Monday, to see what Don Imus says about the death of Tim Russert.

An interesting post on "Imustruth.com", which seems to indicate that Russert did go to bat for Imus during the whole controversy, but was handcuffed by NBC execs on displaying his support for Imus publically. I think that was the case...they were just too good of friends for Russert to turn his back on him. Moreover, Russert was too good of a guy. However, Russert couldn't publically support Imus the way Mike and the Mad Dog or others did after the firing because of his position as the Washington Bureau Chief for NBC News (you recall that Imus in the Morning was simulcast on MSNBC). The evidence of this is indirect...but Imus has had Russert appear as a guest on his show several times since the incident, while Imus has shunned others who abandoned him. Thus, I think Russert did really try to help Don Imus out and prevent his outright dismissal from MSNBC.

Imustruth.com has posted podcasts of several Imus-Russert interviews...listen when you have a chance.

Also, the "Opinionator", Chris Suellentrop of the NYT has posted a nice collection of comments from the Blogosphere regarding Mr. Russert.

Russert Tributes

Here are some heartwarming and touching tributes to Tim Russert.


Tom Brokaw and then Tim talking about his start at Meet the Press


The opening of the Dateline special last night


Tributes from politicians around the country


Pat Buchanan


James Carville


Tim gives advice to his son


Watching all these videos clips of him, it reinforced to me why I love him so much...he was so tenacious and thorough when interviewing people, but he always was smiling and had a twinkle in his eye while doing it.


I will be listening Monday morning to hear what Don Imus says about his long-time friend (you may recall that their relationship was strained after the firing of Don from CBS radio and MSNBC).

More on Russert

I've watched 5 consecutive hours of MSNBC and now NBC coverage of Tim Russert. I can't stop watching...he was such an amazing man. He was known as one of the most honest and rigorous interviewers of politicians, writers, and pundits. He had such a thirst for knowledge and for seeking the truth. But, it is the personal side of Tim that is really so amazing. He was such a humble man, who cared deeply for others, for spending time with his family, for having meaningful interpersonal contacts. It is quite poetic that he died at the start of Father's Day weekend, as he mentions both his father and son in almost every interview he has given. He loved the city of Buffalo, he loved the Roman Catholic Church, he loved the common man, he loved politics, and most of all, he just loved life.

I am still in absolute shock about this...