Coca's Nuts

Farewell

2009-01-06T19:04:00.002-05:00

Folks, it's been just over one full year since I started this blog, and I think it is time to retire it. I hate the fact that I can't devote myself more to blogging, but the fact is, I just can't do it. In the beginning, it was really enjoyable. I would spend many minutes (hours) thinking about my next blog post. I got to write about so many different topics, including global warming, flossing, the stock market, the 2008 presidential race, bottled water, nude flights, double-dipping, big pharma, pig spleens, steroid-gate, the Super Bowl predictor (BTW, it FAILED big-time this year), Gary Coleman, Blue Thunder, eating bugs, saving the penny, toilets, the Barbie doll, camel beauty contests, poor Tim Russert, Sarah Palin, and so much more. It was grand having all of you read my oft-wrong opinions and actually take interest in them. I loved some of the great arguments that were waged in the comments section of the blog.

There is so much more to write about. War in Gaza, continued corruption in politics (? Bill Richardson), Caroline Kennedy, the crazy stock market, the upcoming Super Bowl, Sanjay Gupta as Surgeon General, Obama's plan for tax cuts, etc, etc, etc.

And, there lies part of the problem. There really is so much to comment on, but because I can't do this for a living, my research and time to write about the world is limited. Plus, I don't really know a lot about most of these topics....I'm no expert, thus no one really should listen to what I'm saying most of the time. There are so many other news and opinion sources out there that provide much more valuable information.

I wish you all the best. Thanks again for all the support. Here's to a good 2009 for one and all, and for peace around the world.

P.S. One last tidbit before I exit. Came across a piece on ancient hangover cures. The Assyrians consumed a mixture of ground birds' beaks and myrrh. Europeans in the Middle Ages munched on raw eel and bitter almonds. Mongolians ate pickled sheep's eyes. Itailans drank a mixture of myrrh, rhubarb, aloe, peppermint oil and opiates. Russians don't eat...they sweat it out in saunas.

Thoughts Before the Holidays

2008-12-19T21:37:00.005-05:00

Before I start, I just want to wish everybody a very Merry Christmas, Happy Hannukah, and Happy New Year. It has been an interesting 2008 and here's to 2009 being a happy and healthy one.

On a news-related front, Blago made a public appearance today and gave one of the most incredulous, cocky speeches I've ever seen. Please watch it here...it's short and amusing. He is "not guilty" he will "fight and fight" until his "last breath". He said NOTHING of substance. He reiterated that he will not quit his position. He should at least step aside and let the investigation proceed. I'm sure he can't be an effective governor with the media circus around him. I still don't know who more of a loser...him or Madoff.

Take a look at this chart on returns from the Madoff fund. It's a straight line for the past 20 years! Contrast that with the chart of the S&P....note the fluctuations. How did this not trigger any alerts? Unbelievable. Remember, if it's too good to be true, it can't be true. That performance is too linear! Second, why he is not in jail??? And, third, where is the $50 billion dollars? He could not have spent it all. He must have it hidden in some off-shore account. I hope for the sake of the investors and charities that they will be able to recoup some of that money.

Also, why did Obama pick Pastor Rick Warren to give the invocation at his his inauguration? I know they are friends, but he is overtly anti-homosexual (in fact, he won't even allow homosexuals into his parish), and has many other views that are not in line with most Democrats/liberals. I do applaud Obama for not appeasing only one political view with his choices for his cabinet, but this move is certain to ruffle many feathers on the left because of Warren's hard-right social stances.

Newsweek published an interview with a Somali pirate on the processes involved in hijacking ships. OK, Newsweek, how about not publishing advice on how to be a crook. Bottom line, this pirates need to be taken out and not have their ransoms paid or else it will lead to more hijackings!!

Bush announced the auto-bailout details this morning. It's a $17 billion life-line, but I doubt these companies can get their act together that quickly. I don't know what to think about these bailouts anymore. It's probably like trying to plug a leaking dam with some putty, but at the same time, a FLOOD of new unemployed Americans won't be a welcomed either.

OK, that's enough for now. Again, best holiday wishes to one and all!!

Madoff et al.

2008-12-16T22:25:00.003-05:00

The Bernard Madoff scandal has impacted several people and organizations, including banks, charities, and pensions that had invested millions of dollars in his investment fund. The director of the SEC issued an official apology today for not catching on to Madoff, who basically stole billions of dollars from investors via the Ponzi scheme. What has the SEC been doing? They go after people like Martha Stewart and Mark Cuban for one episode each of insider trading, but completely miss the fraudulent undertakings of Madoff that had gone on for YEARS. People went to bed as multi-millionaires and woke up with almost nothing the next day. What an evil, narcissistic, arrogant, repugnant man. I am surprised he hasn't killed himself after the whole rouse was exposed, but it just shows how evil and unapologetic he is. The impact of the Madoff case will go beyond the actual dollars that were lost by the groups and individuals. It will likely cause a ripple effect in terms of confidence of investors around the world, who are going to be less likely to want to invest in the stock market. As if the worst year in stock market history wasn't enough to rattle investor confidence.

In regards to the market, the fed cut interest rates to almost zero today, and the market, for the time being, loved the news and rocketed higher. Importantly, the major averages did break above the 50 day moving averages. We'll see if a "Santa Claus" rally ensues, but, it is STILL as bear market, and one must remain cautious and place stop limits.

BTW, did you see the story about the boy named Adolf Hitler Campbell? Apparently, it was his 3rd birthday and his dad ordered a frosted cake with his name written on it, but the employee at the supermarket refused to do so, and they had to go to the local Walmart to get the cake. While I don't think the supermarket should have done that, what on earth were the parents thinking by naming him Adolf Hitler? The kid is going to receive constant teasing and torture from his classmates. How is he going to get a job? The parents are idiots. Even if they were trying to prove a point (not sure what that point is), it is going to seriously and negatively impact the poor kid's life.

On a lighter note, check out this elephant play the harmonica.

Size 10 Shoes

2008-12-14T23:48:00.004-05:00

GW Bush was in Iraq giving a speech on Sunday when an Iraqi journalist stood up and flung one then his other shoe at the President. GW showed quick reflexes and ducked out of the way. After reading this op-ed piece by Frank Rich today, it wouldn't surprise me if Rich was diguised as the Iraqi reporter and was the one actually throwing his shoes at Bush. The title of his piece caught me by surprise ("Two cheers for Blagojevich"), but after reading the piece, he makes an excellent point (that the corruption is so broad and deep in Washington and the White House, that it almost makes Blagojevich's follies seem trivial). BTW, here are some funny Blagojevich cartoons.

If Bush would have been giving his speech in Iran rather than Iraq, he probably would have had more than a shoe (or two) thrown at him. They truly practice an "eye for an eye" punishment there. That would mean a lot of torture, electrocution, waterboarding, etc for Dubya.

Interestingly, Mr. McCain (who has vigorously opposed the Bush Administration on the torture issue), does not support Ms. Palin for president in 2012. George Stephanopolous was incredulous and asked again how he cannot support someone that he chose to be his V.P. and the next-in-line were he to fall ill, but McCain said, "my corpse is still warm" (he really didn't answer the question except for some mumbo jumbo that this is a new election cycle). Actually, I have to give McCain more credit than people like Rush Limbaugh who continue to blindly and stupidly support Palin for the 2012 run. McCain is being honest as he realized the grave mistake he made in choosing her. THE MAVERICK!!

How did he get the fox urine?

2008-12-12T19:12:00.002-05:00

This story immediately caught my eyes. A man who was fed up with some kids that had toilet papered his house sprayed the teens with fox urine. The article says he had a squirt gun filled with fox urine and sprayed them as they approached his house.

I am in complete disbelief. How can the report not indicate how on earth this man collected fox urine??!?!?!?!? Does anyone have any ideas how one would do so? Please educate me.

Obamatism

2008-12-10T21:22:00.004-05:00

A new poll that indicates that most Americans are pessimistic about the economy (and have very negative views of congress), find that 67% of Americans have a favorable view of Obama (and only 14% have a negative view). That's really quite impressive, because it means a lot of Republicans are viewing him a favorable manner. I think that the moderate and excellent cabinet he is putting together has a lot to do with it.

There's a recent piece on a sports recession. Honestly, I don't know how the average fan can afford to attend several sporting events if things are as bad as they seem in the economy. The price of the tickets, drinks, food for a family of 4 costs at least $300-400 for any major event. Plus, really, with HDTV, it's so much more comfortable to be watching from home. Of note, CNBC just added an HD channel. It's awesome. They have constant cycling charts on the right side of the screen and the stock quotes at the bottom are just so crisp and clear.

BTW, The silver lining of the recession....lobsters are on sale because of the glut!

Gov. Blagojevich isn't giving up. Obama is calling for him to step down, but he won't...yet. He's quite an persistent little-bugger, isn't he? Here's a little montage of jokes from the late night circuit regarding the most reputable governor. I love Stewart's line..."he has nothing to hide, except whatever is written on his forehead...which probably says, 'Bribe me'."

Corruption All Around

2008-12-10T00:38:00.004-05:00

Rep. Rangel and Gov. Blagojevich are being investigated on major corruption charges. The governor also tried to get the editorialists who were trying to expose his story at the Chicago Tribune fired. These stories are pretty disgusting and push the reputation of politicians into a deeper abyss.

Meanwhile, poor ex-Senator Larry Craig just wanted to have some fun in a men's room and is still losing appeals on his guilty charge. I still don't see the big deal of his actions, especially in comparison to the other dispicable antics that abound in Washington and politics. Plus, men hit on women all the time in bars and other public places. Why can't Larry look for love in the bathroom? My only complaint against him is that he keeps insisting that he's not gay. Larry should just come out of the closet (or bathroom stall). And, if he did come out, he would get to call in sick to work (if he still had a job...which, in my eyes, he still should).

O/T check out Gov. Blagojevich's frontal hairline. At least no one can tell when he furrows his brow. And his brow will become very furrowed when he hears his sentence (and meets his cellmate in prison).

Quick Update

2008-12-08T22:16:00.004-05:00

Good job by everyone keeping the discussion flowing while I was away/busy. Haven't had too much time to focus on the blog tonight, but here are some things that caught my eye.

1. The real "Mr. Short-term Memory" died today in New Haven. He had been the subject of several medical studies of the brain. Remember the Tom Hanks as "Mr. STM" on SNL?

2. Cojones- John Thain, the CEO of Merrill Lynch recently requested a $10 million bonus for this year. Are you kidding? I don't know how right it is for the government to regulate CEO salaries/bonuses, but I think that companies that received government money should not be giving out bonuses for AT LEAST this year. Mr. Thain did withdraw his request after public scrutiny, but it is still ridiculous.

3. Bear Grylls, of Man vs. Wild, was injured in Antartica. It was only a matter of time. I hope he will be OK soon that he can resume taping one of my favorite shows and start drinking the fresh blood from the severed jugular of a yak again.

4. This study on the spread of happiness totally makes sense, but it does seem like it was a lot of work to actually prove. It was published in BMJ. Fortunately, sadness does not spread as easily. Each happy friend increases your own chance of being happy by 9 percent, whereas each unhappy friend decreases it by 7 percent. Choose your friends wisely!

5. The above study also demonstrated that obesity co-segregates. A person's likelihood of becoming obese increased by 57 percent if he or she had a friend who became obese in a given time period. I guess that would explain the new study that demonstrates that Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, South Carolina, and Texas are the unhealiest states in the U.S. Nothing against BBQ and other types of Southern food, but the portion sizes are just way too large.

6. Dog tries to save injured/dead dog in highway in Chile. Watch the video- it's pretty incredible. A new study also demonstrates that dogs have a sense of fairness. And, in Chicago, an obese dog froze to the sidewalk. Thankfully his layers of fat saved him from freezing to death.

7. OK, so the shooting and death of the teenager in Greece was a tragedy that needs thorough investigation. But, three days of rioting in Athens? That's enough. These people are always protesting in the streets. Where does it get them? What is this destruction going to accomplish? Already several have been injured now. Time to round up some Spartan police officers to quell the unrest.

8. The recession is even affecting television. NBC will cut back the number of hours of programming during primetime. And, in an interesting move, Jay Leno will move to 10 PM timeslot after Conan O'Brien takes over the 11:30 time slot in the spring. Conan is a gem. I'm glad he will have a chance to be seen by more people in the earlier time slot.

Update

2008-12-02T00:47:00.002-05:00

I did a quick scan of the news and between the economy (it was announced today that the recession actually started in Dec 07), the stock market (7th largest loss in market history), fiscal emergency in California, the continued terrorist attacks in India (a bomb exploded on a train today), and even the flooding of historic Venice, there is just not much in the way of uplifting stories to discuss.

I'm going to be away at a conference and interviews for the rest of the week, so blog updates, if any will be sparce. For those of you that haven't checked out the comments sections, there are some real fireworks and good discussions here (blog record 38 comments in regards to a single post).

Hold down the fort while I'm gone. Start a new string of discussion on a topic in the comments section for this link if something strikes a nerve!

College Football

2008-11-30T18:49:00.002-05:00

I know this isn't that important in the big scheme of things, but I hope the MESS that has been created this year via the BCS standings will finally, finally encourage the NCAA to move to a playoff system for college football. I will not hold my breath, as there have been several controversies already over the past several years that should have provided enough evidence to the powers that be that the BCS system is just not kosher.

As you may have heard, the Big 12 Championship game matchup was decided today by the 5th tiebreaker, which, unfortunately is the BCS ranking system. In brief, Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech all ended with a 7-1 record in the Big 12 South (and 11-1 overall), and were vying to play Missouri, the winner of the Big 12 North division. Texas beat Oklahoma back in October, 45-35, Oklahoma beat Texas Tech 69-21, and Texas Tech beat 39-33. Oklahoma got the nod for the Big 12 Championship because of a 0.9351 average, slightly better than 0.9223 average for Texas.

Personally, I really couldn't care about this, except as a casual football fan. However, there are so many players, coaches, universities and fans that pour so much effort, time, money and their heart and soul into college football that it just seems ridiculous that a computer ranking system (that takes into account "style points") ends up determining the championship, when every other sport in the NCAA and in the world is decided on the field.

Plus, it leads to pathetic pandering and campaigning by the coaches and universities, which just is so uncouth. This is a sport played by strong young men, and should be decided mano a mano rather than some nerdy computer algorithm.

Get rid of the conference championship games and start either a 8 or 16 team playoff from early December and that culminates in early January. It would not lead to global academic underperformance. The players are already receiving tons of help/tutoring and are still practicing football all throughout first semester finals in preparation for the bowl game. Plus, only 2 teams would end up playing in all 3 or 4 games, the rest would be eliminated earlier and the net time spent away from the books would be about the same.

This system simply does not make any sense. All I know is that Texas beat Oklahoma, and that Utah and Boise State are undefeated, yet it is unlikely that any of those teams have any chance at winning the college football crown.

Supply-Demand Economics

2008-11-24T23:30:00.003-05:00

This is such a good news-bad news story/concept. The good news? The higher gas prices over the past year led to 11 straight monthly declines in miles driven by Americans. The high fuel prices had everybody salivating on methods and strategies for implementation of alternative energy sources and created the demand for more fuel efficient vehicles. Great, right?

Well, because it's a feeback loop, the decline in demand for fuel (not only by less driving but declining activity of world-wide economies), has led to an ABRUPT reduction in gas prices. This removes the impetus and inherent pressure to innovate, and I fear we will be back to square one. This is why we never learn the lesson. I think we need to implement a carbon tax. There is no other way around this. I know it is messing with free-market relationships, but, please, there is no need to be consuming so much oil, particularly when we get the majority of it for a high cost from not so friendly countries.

The Economy

2008-11-24T08:38:00.003-05:00

Obama is doing a pretty good job at putting together his economic team. The free-marketers of Wall Street seem to really like his selections of Geithner as Treasury Secretary and Summers as Top Economic Advisor, as evidenced by the late day rally on Friday (which was really building up on a technical basis in the charts prior to the announcement) and the higher futures this morning. Not only are they centrist, but it's taking away uncertainty in these very uncertain times. Also, overnight, the government announced they will be bailing out Citigroup with a complex deal.

The script for the democrats and Obama can't get much better as far as drama and credit goes. Fairly or unfairly, Bush will go down in history as being the leader of the U.S. as it entered its 2nd greatest recession of all-time. He will also be remembered for socializing most of the banks and investment firms, and potentially for bailing out the automakers. Obama will come out looking as the "savior" as the economy will emerge (with or without his help) much stronger in the next 2-4 years. It's kind of ironic.

Watch the market today. It is an important day. There haven't been 2 big up days in a row in a very long time. If the market can tack on 4-6% today, then it would probably signify that a meaningful intermediate-term rally will take place (could rebound 30-40% from these levels). It actually wouldn't even be bad if the market went into negative territory after the higher futures, as long as it finishes up strong. It's all about the close and the last hour.

Cliff-Diving

2008-11-20T22:37:00.003-05:00

There has been unbelievable price destruction of equities over the past several weeks. A few weeks ago, I posted the long-term chart of the S&P and indicated that a testing of the bear market lows from 2002-2003 would be inevitable. Well, I thought it would happen after some type of oversold rally to relieve some of the selling pressure, especially as we have entered favorable "seasonality" (November and December are typically very strong months).

I don't know what to say or what's going to happen next. Ever indicator that I and every other trader follows had been pointing to a rally. It never occurred and there has been a major price breakdown, below the lows of the previous bear market. The ultra-confusing thing is that the S&P is below, but the Dow and NASDAQ still have a little way to go to get back to those old lows. Will every index fall below? If they do, and there isn't a major rally in the next 1-2 days, S&P 600 and Dow 6000 will be the next stop.

I feel badly for everybody that has lost so much money in this market. It just doesn't seem fair that people can slowly put away money month by month in their 401K or investment accounts and have 5-10 years of gains disappear in a matter of weeks. No one ever said that the market wasn't risky, but still, it's just a travesty.

P.S. Ford hit $1 per share today and Citigroup fell below $5.

Five bucks with change to spare

2008-11-18T21:23:00.005-05:00

Five dollars. That's not much money. You can barely get a good lunch these days for $5. But, do you know what you can get? One share each of GM and Ford stock, and you'd have 23 cents left over. It's unbelievable. The CEOs of the 3 U.S. automakers were on Capitol Hill today and took a grilling from the Senate. They stammered on their defense of why they need a $25 billion dollar bail-out. Chris Dodd pretty much summarized the sentiment many including myself are feeling about this issue:

The industry is "seeking treatments for wounds that I believe to a large extent were self-inflicted, but at a time like this, when our economic future is so tenuous, we must do all we can to ensure stability."

I watched some of the testimony. They had a PhD economist, Peter Morici, testify as well, and it was somewhat amusing to watch him directly rebut the promises that the CEOs were making in regards in becoming profitable in the very near future and being able to pay back the "loan". He cited that only Chrysler was even close to meeting the quality and efficiency standards that Honda and Toyota have in place, as rated by an independent quality assessment firm. Plus, he stated even with major job cuts in an attempt to improve their bottom line, the amount in pension benefits (about $105,000 per employee) that would need to be paid out will cripple their profit margins.

I don't have the annual balance sheets of these automakers (nor do I want them), but I will say that during the whole bull market run from 2003-2007, Ford and GM shares were flat/declining throughout. That implies terrible management. Here's what I would do: While these companies dug their own graves, the ripple effects throughout the whole economy would be horrific if they went under. Therefore, I would give the companies the $25 billion, with the conditions that all 3 CEOs are fired, and new CEOs are hired with proven track records of running profitable companies that produced quality products.

Our economy, bailout or no bailout, is in big trouble. Even Harvard's endowment investments are getting pummeled, as their account has lost 30% of its value this year.

At least health care is safe right?

Wrong!!

Read this article: Twenty percent of primary care doctors said they will cut back on patients seen, 10% said they will work only part-time, 11% plan to retire, and 13% are planning on finding jobs that don't involve patient care. Why is this bad? Because there is already a shortage of primary care doctors, and 67% of physicians surveys said they are working at full capacity or are overextended and overworked as it is. Oh, and 60% said they would not recommend medicine as a career. This is troubling, but understandable given what is going on in medicine these days. The demands for keeping up on the latest medical information, trying to manage elderly patients with multiple comorbidities, doing paperwork and fighting claims with insurance companies, and so on are just too much to handle for primary care physicians. That's why a job at a VA hospital is the way to go!

At least rich people in Santa Barbara are doing well. WRONG! More than 210 homes, including many multi-million dollar mansions have been destroyed by the wildfires. Worse yet, evidence is pointing to a bonfire started by 10 college students as the culprit. It's ashame, not only for the homeowners who probably lost priceless memorabilia in the fires, but also because of the added economic stress. California has already spent $305 million on emergency firefighting since July 1st, only $236 million more than was budgeted, and the state has a deficit of $11.2 billion.

Ok, that's enough of this Debbie Downer session. Have a good night!

Funnies

2008-11-15T21:39:00.003-05:00

Bear Grylls on Man vs. Wild tonight, stranded on a desert island, said "No matter how tempted, never drink seawater, your kidneys will collapse". Perhaps they need a nephrologist consultant for the show! Also, in an episode from "Siberia", the locals sliced the neck of a yak, and he placed his mouth directly on its severed jugular vein and drank about a quart of blood. Even though it was nasty, at least the blood is isotonic and won't "collapse his kidneys".

I don't know who's a more talented and funny impressionist.

1. Frank Caliendo (watch this clip of him on the Tonight Show....his Leno, Bush, and John Madden impressions are awesome).

2. Rob Bartlett as the Godfather and Hulk Hogan. I love when he seamlessly breaks into Italian which pausing.

Has anyone ever been troubled by the Silversonic XL commerical? I think it is a little freaky. It's not really marketed for people with poor hearing, but instead seems to encourage eavesdropping. Watch this video.

Nuts and Bolts

2008-11-13T22:59:00.003-05:00

Don't think we need to do something about the environment? Read this....brown clouds over Asia, decreasing the amount of sun to major cities there by about 25%.

This is cool...CSI meets Con-spiracy regarding the JFK shooting. There was NOT a second shooter.

This is ridiculous....what happened to separation of church and state?

A good argument for "taxes"....sorry Don! But it saves lives! I would also love to see similar studies on the effect of higher taxes on tobacco products.

This article, including the title, show why you cannot trade the stock market based on fundamentals alone. Expanding national deficit and unemployment were the two key economic numbers reported today. The market rocketed up in the 2nd half of the day. Technical analysis must be a huge part of the equation. In fact, now that I've learned about this stuff, it is hilarious that most of the newscasters, including those on CNBC and Bloomberg still try to explain daily moves on the news (e.g., "stocks plunge today based on credit fears, higher oil"...it's all crap). See my market update to the right. Today was an important day.

TF on the Detroit Bailout

2008-11-12T21:52:00.003-05:00

Love Tom Friedman. He hits the nail right on the head again with a Scathing report on GM and the others. He has an excellent idea for what should be done IF the government decides to bail out the pathetic US automakers.

The devil inside me (or maybe just the free market capitalist) says let them fail, and use the taxpayer money instead to send the unemployed autoworkers to school, whether it be trade school or academic school. Or, better yet, let them fail, do nothing, and teach them all a lesson. The government cannot bail out every failed business and every unemployed worker in this economic cycle. It will probably be best for us to emerge from this recession (and ALL recessions eventually end) with true innovation and grit by both strong companies with innovative leaders and by resiliant and adaptable workforces. If we keep printing money for more and more bailouts, we are going to end up with massive inflation over the next several years. Remember we had inflation of 15-18% at the end of the 1970s. That's where we will be headed.

Potpourri

2008-11-11T21:02:00.005-05:00

Some great articles on the current state and future of conservatism:

1. Mark Sanford, governor of South Carolina, blames the Republicans, not conservative ideology for losing the presidential election. I completely concur. I have been recently arguing with Bush/GOP supporters who hold conservative viewpoints. Haven't these Republican leaders failed in almost every facet??? (massive spending, huge deficit, bailouts, 2 endless wars and nation building in the Middle East, etc).

2. David Brooks on the Traditionalists vs. Reformers in the GOP. Regardless, as mentioned above, Conservatism is dying in the U.S., and that has happened with Bush at the helm. Now that Obama will be taking over, the conservatives are going to have to hunker down (as it appears they are already doing on a cruise). The Republicans used to be able to state their mantra in 8 words: Smaller government, lower taxes, strong defense, personal responsibility. One can argue that all but the "lower taxes" themes have been violated (budget/deficit huge, military forces stretched, bailouts galore), and the lower taxes will likely give way as we will face the "bills" for all of the spending, bailouts and unfunded mandates (social security and Medicare) over the next several years.

3. Are we really going to bail out the auto industry as well? I'm torn on this, because collapse of GM and or Ford will be devastating for the work force, but these corporations have been so uninsprining and run so poorly, that I kind of think survival of the fittest should be the principle to adhere to in this case. Who will the government bail-out next, Circuit City? Give me a break. GM continued to build gas-guzzling vehicles for years, while Toyota and Honda continued to produce better and more fuel-efficient vehicles.

4. Bush is going to publish his memoirs and admits he has made some mistakes, including "Mission Accomplished". Thanks, W.

5. Palin, on the concession speech she wanted to give on election night. She hints she wants to run for Pres in 2012. At least she will have 4 years to study up for the "gotcha" questions.

6. A new study, reported at the American Heart Association meeting, finds that 10-year old obese children had arteries equivalent to 45-year olds. One-third of American children are overweight. Get out there and exercise kids!! At least play Wii Fitness!!

7. This map is scary: depicts where homes are worth less than the mortgage.

History!

2008-11-04T23:18:00.005-05:00

Wow! Not even close! A historic moment for sure.

I'm glad the campaigning is over. President-elect Obama will now have monumental tasks ahead of him: trying to steady the economy (less will be more), presiding over the two wars, dealing with other global threats (Iran, Pakistan, etc), the need to reform health care and social security, and the need bring a real energy policy to the U.S.

We will be watching closely....remember "the night is darkest before the dawn".

MNF

2008-11-03T22:16:00.004-05:00

Chris Berman interviewed Obama and McCain at halftime of the Steelers-Redskins game. He asked what one thing they would each change about sports.

Obama said he would add a playoff system involving the top 8 teams to college football. He is "tired of computer models" deciding the champion. I agree. College football is the only NCAA sport that does not always have its champion crowned on the field. The college basketball is just as long as college football. Thus, the argument that the playoff games would interfere with the studies of the athletes is bunk.

McCain said he would aggressively pursue users of performance enhancing drugs in sports. He has been an advocate of this in his time as Senator, so no real suprise. The actual surprise was that McCain was pretty funny and used not one, but TWO Chris Berman catch-phrases and made Berman, as well as me, laugh pretty hard. And, I was all alone...did you ever notice that you laugh with less intensity when you are alone?? Anway, McCain said that he "could go all the way (staccato)...to the White House", and even though he is not being given much of a chance tomorrow by the pundits, "That's why they play the games". Berman fans know that these are two of his favs. Good job!

Election Eve

2008-11-03T20:15:00.002-05:00

Don't forget to vote tomorrow! It will be a big day and probably a long evening.

There isn't much left to be said about the candidates and their platforms.

Instead, I will leave you will one final comedic-political sketch. This from radio pranksters from Canada who pretend to be Nickolas Sarkozy and Sarah Palin completely falls for it. Here's the audio.

Election Update

2008-10-30T22:27:00.003-04:00

Only a few more days until the highly anticipated Presidential election. Finally, the campaigning will end and we can start the process of ridding ourselves of the Bush administration.

Here are some interesting links from around the web in regards to the election:

1. McCain-Palin conflict- the McCain campaign has realized the enormous gaffe in her selection, and fighting within the ticket BEFORE the election just isn't a good sign. A new poll indicates that 59% of Americans don't feel she is ready to be V.P.

2. The battle over Florida- Obama has a slight lead

3. Even George Will, one of the most prominent conservative writers in this country, can't hold in his criticisms of McCain-Palin anymore, including McCain's decision-making capability

4. The Economist (my favorite magazine), known for its economic conservatism and support of free markets, officially supports Obama over McCain. They cite McCain's poor choice of Sarah Palin, his indecision regarding the economic crisis, and his temperament as negatives, and cite Obama's ability to learn and excellent cadre of advisers, his style and discipline as reasons to support him.

5. Racism by attendees at Palin events continues.

6. Pretty cool map of newspaper endorsements.

7. Francis Fukuyama, from the AMERICAN CONSERVATIVE, endorses Obama.

8. A poll taken in Texas shows that 20% of people still think Obama is a Muslim.

9. Tim Gunn rates the fashion of the candidates.

10. Sarkozy voices harsh criticism for Obama's stance towards Iran. That guy has got chutzpah.

11. A dynamic view of the Electoral College over time. Very cool. Just makes you wish we had another system besides all vs. none for each state (why not use the method for most of the primaries- split the delegate?) and also makes you really wish we had other strong parties besides Republicans and Democrats.

Odds and Ends

2008-10-29T22:50:00.002-04:00

1. Congrats to the Phillies. New World Series champs!

2. Give me a break...Joe the Plumber country musician?

3. Isaac Mizrahi, fashion guru, says the greatest fashion mistake is "bad hair". Has he looked in the mirror?

4. Speaking of fashion, maybe this is why I like the Christmas season so much!

5. These pirates off the coast of Somalia are out of control. 5 attacks in one day! Reminds me of my favorite pirate joke.

6. The numbers aren't adding up. How is Obama going to pay for everything? Doesn't anyone care about our deficit anymore?

7. Foreign accent syndrome. This wasn't in Harrison's. Incredible...watch the video. I would love a British accent or a Spanish accent like Javier Bardem's.

8. David Brooks with a great piece on perception vs. reality.

9. At 11:15 PM, Bill Clinton and Obama are campaigning together at a rally in Florida. I cannot even imagine how awkward it must be for Bill. All those months of battling him and now he has to go out on the stage and pledge his full support. Granted, it has to be done, but I'm just saying it must not be that easy to swallow the pride and do this.

10. Oh, how sad, Kim Jong Il is not doing well. I hope he recovers...he should be charged and tried for crimes against humanity.

Random Musings

2008-10-25T11:52:00.012-04:00

Sorry I've been away the past few days...last few days were jam-packed with way too many interviews and a talk I had to give, so was barely aware of the news or the stock market.

Things I missed that were funny:

1. Will Farrell reprising his role as G W Bush on the Thursday edition of SNL

2. Jon Stewart "Gaffe-in" with funny flubs by our favorite politicians on the left and the right.

Interesting Things:
1. The Fey-Palin effect on real voters: small, but negative

2. Alan Greenspan takes partial blame for the financial crisis, by admitted his mistake in allowing completely unregulated free markets in the banking system. He thought the financial institutions would have looked after the best interests of their shareholders. Listen, capitalism is great, because it allows hard-working people to prosper. However, there is a point of excess, and when billions of dollars are involved, human nature, in general, turns people into greedy and conniving individuals. It's time to watch "Wall Street" again ("Greed is good") and also "American Psycho". Also, read this parable:

Once upon a time in a village, a man appeared and announced to the
villagers that he would buy monkeys for $10 each.

The villagers seeing that there were many monkeys around, went out to
the forest, and started catching them.

The man bought thousands at $10 and as supply started to diminish, the
villagers stopped their effort. He further announced that he would
now buy at $20.

This renewed the efforts of the villagers and they started catching
monkeys again.

Soon the supply diminished even further and people started going back
to their farms.

The offer increased to $25 each and the supply of monkeys became so
little that it was an effort to even see a monkey, let alone catch it!

The man now announced that he would buy monkeys at $50!

However, since he had to go to the city on some business, his
assistant would now buy on his behalf.

In the absence of the man, the assistant told the villagers. 'Look at
all these monkeys in the big cage that the man has collected. I will
sell them to you at $35 and when the man returns from the city, you
can sell them to him for $50 each.'

The villagers rounded up with all their savings and bought all the
monkeys.

Then they never saw the man nor his assistant ever again, only monkeys
everywhere!

Now you have a better understanding of how the stock market works.

3. The rating agencies are just as guilty in this whole financial mess. Read this story...there were memos that they would rate any deal, even if it was "structured by cows". Greed, again.

4. Farts can reduce blood pressure!! Awesome!

5. This one is for Don....a country that has socialist medicine came up with a huge medical breakthrough!!! How can it be?? (Read the story: potential cure for MS).

6. This is the most fair and objective examination I have seen regarding who is responsible for the current economic crisis. Scroll to the bottom to see the no fewer than 11 parties (including home owners themselves) who collectively share responsibility for this mess.

The stock market:

I'll keep this short. Extreme volatility in the markets again. Dow was only down 300 pts on Friday, but futures were "limit down". Vix closed at 79!!! If you understand this indicator, you realize that this is completely outrageous. Bottom line is no matter what the indicators are saying about over-sold conditions (new highs new lows, stocks below 40 day MAs, etc), it doesn't matter this time. In my opinion, there are now 2 major forces in play. First, the triangle I described last week on the 60 min chart has broken to the downside with a classic backtest and fall away.

This is clearly apparent on the daily chart as well.

Finally, we are destined to test the 2003 bear market lows. I would not be surprised to see the Dow down 1000 points (intraday) on Monday or Tuesday. Then, and only then can we start to form a good base and start to trade to the upside more rationally.

Financial Crisis in a Nutshell

2008-10-23T08:12:00.000-04:00

Folks, this is a hilarious (and ridiculously true) "primer" on the subprime/financial crisis that we now find ourselves in. Please watch this powerpoint presentation, depicting the crisis as acted out by stickfigure people.

NEJM Editorial on Health Care

2008-10-22T20:46:00.003-04:00

Great editorial today in NEJM on our health care system. The author makes 3 major points (inconvenient truths):

1. Over the past 30 years, U.S. health care expenditures havegrown 2.8% per annum faster, on average, than the rest of theeconomy. If this differential continues for another 30 years,health care expenditures will absorb 30% of the gross domesticproduct— a proportion that exceeds that of current governmentspending for all purposes combined.

He lists great reasons why this is occurring, but the thing I would like to point out is that the "free markets" have not contained health care costs, as so promised by Newt Gingrinch and the AMA in 1994, as they squashed "Hillary Care".

2. Advances in medicine are the main reason why health carespending has grown 2.8% per annum faster than the rest of theeconomy.

I agree with the author's points (not listed here- see article). To expand further, we need to incorporate COST-EFFECTIVENESS into the CMS/Medicare approved drugs, procedures, etc. All a company needs to get approval from the FDA and for reimbursement from CMS is to demonstrate efficacy (often only compared to placebo). New treatments should be compared to standard of care and be evaluated by cost-effectiveness as well.

3. Universal coverage requires subsidies for the poor and thosetoo sick to afford insurance at an actuarially appropriate premium;it also requires compulsion for those who don't want to helppay for the subsidies or who want a "free ride," expecting thatthey will get care if they need it.

This point is so critical. People think that someone else is paying for their health insurance in the U.S., and that health care taxes as they have in other countries would be crazy. Money quote:

When a firm pays $3,000 to $7,000per worker per year for health care, it can get that money inonly three ways: reducing potential wage increases, increasingprices for what the firm sells (which means lower real wagesfor workers everywhere), or lowering profits. During the past three decades, health insurance premiums haveincreased about 300% (after adjustment for general inflation).Where did the money come from for higher premiums? Out of wageincreases that would normally accompany growth in productivity.During these three decades, the average worker has not receivedany increase in inflation-adjusted wages. Corporate profits,by contrast, have increased by 232% before taxes (284% aftertaxes), adjusted for inflation.

The most efficient, equitable way to achieve universal coverageis to make basic health insurance available to everyone regardlessof income, employment status, family circumstances, or othercharacteristics and to pay for it with a tax roughly proportionalto income or consumption.

People, stop being fooled! You are paying just as much or more for your non-universal health care as you would if we had universal health care. Think of all of the premiums, co-pays for visits and meds, uncovered costs, and the lack of increase in wages and then you might realize it. Also, health care should not be tied to your employment affiliation! How many people do you know that are working at a job that they dislike, just "for the health care benefits". Get with the program.

McCain on Imus

2008-10-22T20:33:00.003-04:00

John McCain was back on the Imus in the Morning show today. It had been a long hiatus. I know Don Imus is barely relevant anymore, but it actually was a good interview. Imus asked some good questions, including the following (paraphrased): (the audio is within this link)

1. How can you be optimistic being so far behind in the polls? (he said he's closer in some polls than others and that Bush was behind Kerry by about the same margin in 2004 at this same point in time)

2. What is up with your pick of Palin as VP, after criticism from so many prominent Republicans? (he said she was the most qualified VP candidate in recent history)

3. How can you defend her after her terrible performance in her interviews with Charlie Gibson and Katie Couric? (she did fine in those interviews, was bombarded by "gotcha" questions)

4. How could she not even name a newspaper that she reads? (she reads the news "offline")

5. How can you defend the fact that she hasn't gone on any Sunday morning talk shows, including Meet the Press, generally considered a rite of passage? (his response to this is amazing, i.e., pathetic...listen to the audio)

6. Why do you keep making a case about William Ayers and not Rev. Wright? (I forgot his response, but Imus actually points out an interesting "double standard" by Obama)

7. Why does Gov. Palin keep saying that Obama is hanging out with terrorists? (he said there are some crazy people at his rallies, but only the minority)

8. Do you think race will play a roll in the election (people who said they will vote for Obama won't, i.e., the Bradley Effect)? No, people will vote for who they believe is the best candidate

Palin Supports Federal Ban on Gay Marriage

2008-10-20T22:19:00.002-04:00

Today, Sarah Palin openly supported a constitutional ammendement to ban gay marriage, saying she believed that traditional marriage is the foundation for strong families. Of note, her view is different from that of John McCain, who feels this decision should be left up to the states.

I agree with Mr. McCain here. It's a states rights issue. BTW, the CT supreme court voted to allow gay marriage last week. I don't feel strongly that gay marriages must exist (although I do strongly support equal rights and civil unions, at the very least), but the argument that gay marriage will ruin the foundation of marriage just doesn't hold water. It doesn't seem that couples with "traditional marriages" in CT are suddenly seeing their marriages collapse because of the new ruling.

Powell Endorses Obama

2008-10-19T12:56:00.003-04:00

Today on "Meet the Press" (haven't forgotten about you Timmy), Retired General Colin Powell, former Secretary of State for the Bush Administration, endorsed Barack Obama over John McCain for president.

He states his decision has nothing to do with race, and instead sites Obama's style and substance, Obama's "inclusive" rather than narrow-minded policies, McCain's poor choice of Gov. Sarah Palin (as she is "unqualified" to be president), and McCain's potential to place 2 more conservatives judges in the Supreme Court court as major reasons why he is endorsing Obama. He also called Obama a transformational figure and stated that the Republican Party has moved too far to the right.

Of course, he was openly criticized by Rush Limbaugh, who feels his decision is based purely on race. Limbaugh also thinks he is not showing loyalty to Bush and the Republicans, as they are the ones who anointed him a 4-star general.

"'Secretary Powell says his endorsement is not about race,' Limbaugh wrote in an email. 'OK, fine. I am now researching his past endorsements to see if I can find all the inexperienced, very liberal, white candidates he has endorsed. I'll let you know what I come up with.'" "'I was also unaware of his dislike for John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Anthony Kennedy and Antonin Scalia. I guess he also regrets Reagan and Bush making HIM a 4-star and Secretary of State AND appointing his son to head the FCC. Yes, let's hear it for transformational figures.'"

I say good for Colin Powell for making what seems to be a well-informed and non-hasty decision and for doing what he feels is right in his heart, and not what is "right" for his former cronies. The culture of cronyism is a phenomenon that helped turn the Bush administration into a disaster. And for anyone who thinks his decision is based on race, PLEASE watch the video of his explanation on Meet the Press. I found his explanation to be completely reasonable, very well thought out with supporting evidence behind each one of his points, and finally, it was very heart-felt.

Market Update

2008-10-18T11:13:00.008-04:00

Another wild day on Wall Street yesterday, although this time the swing was only 500 Dow points (the lowest of the week). It seemed like the market was going to take off in the mid-afternoon, only to get stopped cold and abruptly lose 4%.

Why did this happen? A look at the 60 minute chart shows that the downtrend line from the previous highs served as major resistance. The indices are forming huge symmetrical triangles. We should expect the S&P to fall to around 880 to test the lower part of that triangle. Then, the market will either: A) bounce up from there and try to break through the top part of the triangle again, B) bounce up and come back down again, or C) just fall straight through that downtrend line on this new wave down. The break of the triangle to the downside will trigger more massive selling. For conservative investors looking out more than 1-2 days, no major moves should be made until the triangle resolves to the upside or the downside. I can't tell you which way it will break, I can only tell you that when it does, it will cause major movement in the direction of the break. One pessimistic thing from a technical standpoint is that despite the very oversold conditions via a whole host of indicators, we cannot sustain a major rally. In the past 100 years, very oversold condidtions have always led to major snapback rallies. The 14% rally we had this past Monday may have been all the bulls can truly muster up. The other bearish problem is that these types of triangle resolve to one direction or the other about 2/3rds through the triangle, so according to my drawing on the chart above, we may have 2 chances at breaking to the downside but only 1 more chance (if we bounce up again) to break through the topside. These patterns do not keep going until the points of the triangle meet.

I mentioned that I had gone "long" the S&P and NASDAQ via the SSO and QLD. As I indicated in the comments section of "Double Bottom" yesterday, I got out of these positions late in the afternoon, as a failed rally on a Friday afternoon (and the downtrend line serving as fierce resistance), did not make me keen on holding long positions going into Monday morning. I'm sure that type of mentality among traders contributed to the decline in the last 90 min yesterday...who trusts this market? Bad news of failing banks, etc. tends to come out over the weekend and Monday's market could be ugly (again).

For all of you think that this technical analysis is baloney, let me point you to an interesting article today that utilizes fundamental analysis. In short, based on valuation, stocks are still not "undervalued". Based on data from previous recessions and stock market lows, valuations might need to drop even further, and estimates by these experts put the S&P in a range of 400-600 to get into the appropriate range (yikes). These facts are confirmed by the wise folks at Comstock Partners who also suggest stocks are far too overvalued (see text posted in the comments section for this entry...it's a bit long and didn't want to clutter the board).

Now That's Entertainment!

2008-10-18T09:55:00.002-04:00

Folks, please, please, please watch these two videos. Obama and McCain gave tremendously funny speeches (roasts) at the Al Smith Memorial Dinner on Thursday night. The jokes are witty and cutting and hit at the very issues that have been debated over the past several weeks. It's refreshing to see them employing humor rather than the repeated sniping, scowls, and faces they make at each other in the debates.

Obama's speech

McCain's speech

Also, dont' forget....Sarah Palin will be on SNL tonight!

Post-Debate Wrap-up

2008-10-16T21:04:00.005-04:00

My controversial views on the debate last night set off a firestorm. The post received 32 comments, an all-time record for my blog.

I did a little searching around the "internets" to see what others were saying about the debate.

First, the polls of "Joe-six pack", or the "Joe the Plumber" (I'm tired of the stupid "Joe" references by all of the candidates).

1. CNN Poll: Obama 58%, McCain 31%

2. CBS news: Obama 53%, McCain 22%, Tie 25%

3. Politco.com: Obama 49%, McCain 46%, but McCain won among independent voters (51-42%)

Second, amongst the pundits:

1. Time magazine: McCain A-, Obama B

2. Fox News: Amazingly, among 10+ pundits from Fox News, most felt Obama won the debate!! Fair and balanced!

Finally, fact checks:

1. MSNBC: Lots of stretching of the truth by both candidates

2. Factcheck.org: So many untruths by both candidates. It makes me sick. It seems almost everything each candidate said was untrue in some way. Yes, including the ACORN scandal.

I wish they could have some interns do real-time fact check during the debate and then pipe in the answers into the moderator's earpiece. Then the moderator can confront the candidates right there and then. Instead, the candidates get away with their drivel and most Americans will be none the wiser, because 95% are probably not going to read the post-debate fact check pieces on the internets. Heck, even I was getting all fired up about Ayers and ACORN until I was shown the truth. So, in essence, the debates just become a show and can sway American voters unfairly. The system has to be improved.

Double Bottom

2008-10-16T20:50:00.004-04:00

The stock market continued another wild week with two massive down days after Monday's largest rally ever. Today, the Dow was down 400 points intraday, and although we didn't make a perfect double-bottom on the Dow and S&P that I was referring to in previous posts, the NASDAQ did make a perfect double bottom. When prices hit that low again, the market abruptly turned around and soared higher with huge gains for all of the indices. More importantly, these "hammering" candles put in on the charts today came on massive volume, which finally indicates that buyers are coming into the market. There is still a lot of technical damage on the charts, but now that the double-bottom is in place, we have a line in the sand, and can begin to trade to the long-side in the hopes of a counter-trend multi-week rally. I will be skeptical until we regain important resistance levels, but I did buy double-long ETF positions in the S&P (SSO) and NASDAQ (QLD; about 10% of portfolio each) at around 2:30 today, and for the first time in weeks, held positions into the close and overnight (I've been 100% cash otherwise with only occasional intra-day daytrades).

It's a Girl!!!

2008-10-16T11:27:00.003-04:00

I usually don't like to post any personal stories, but you will have to allow me this one exception. My brother and sister-in-law, Sara, had a baby girl yesterday, Isabella Josephine. She weighs 7 lbs 3 oz, and is 19 inches long.

I have a few good reasons to share this personal story:

1. Most of you know my brother, Dean
2. She's really, really, really cute!
3. I'm a new uncle
4. There is an educational piece: Dean finds that tapping the baby's bottom with his index finger while cradling her is very soothing (to both her and Dean)

Congratulations Dean and Sara (and to my parents who are grandparents for the 1st time)!!

Final Presidential Debate

2008-10-15T21:26:00.005-04:00

The debate is underway, and let me say, that this format is much, much better. They are really getting to rebut each other and Schieffer is asking some great questions. Less stump speech lines from both candidates. McCain is coming out much more aggressive but at the same time less angry.

The first question regarding the economy, McCain actually discussed a good populist plan by going in and helping out homeowners, and then I think won the battle regarding taxes. I have said it before and said it again, taxes CANNOT be raised in times of recession, even on really rich people. It will cause the economy to completely stall. The job losses will be staggering.

Regarding the deficit and budget, Obama gave no specific answers about what he would cut, only saying he would "use a scalpel". McCain suggests a spending freeze, and names several budget items that he would cut, including the ethanol subsidies (I agree...ethanol subsidies are foolish).

Regarding the comments by Congressman Lewis, McCain puts Obama back on his heels. McCain points out that he has repudiated some despicable comments made by people within his own party. McCain then brings up Ayers, and Obama tries to defend. He said he will not be a part of his cabinet. Then trying to defend ACORN, a brief defense, but McCain hammers back with allegations about Ayers and ACORN. Wow. These are jarring blows. Obama has not done an adequate job at separating himself from these two situations, and I agree that more investigations are necessary.

Energy policy: I will repeat, Bob Schieffer is asking the best questions. Makes Ifill and Brokaw look like puppet clowns. Bob wants to know how much we can reduce dependency on foreign oil. Earlier McCains points out how a full-force movement for energy independence will create millions of domestic jobs (he is right). McCain says we can achieve energy independence in 7-8 years. Obama says in 10 years. Obama reiterates that it is one of the most important issues (which I agree with). Obama even mentions offshore drilling as a possibility, but points out that domestic production will never equal our consumption. McCain wants to start offshore drilling immediately. Obama wants to limit free trade, McCain is strongly for it, and points out how the US has to pay to export goods to Colombia. Obama points out some the need to examine human rights along with the free trade policies. McCain has another nice zinger about Obama not willing to have free trade with Colombia (supporter of the U.S), but is willing to sit down with Hugo Chavez (non-supporter of the U.S).

Health care: Obama mentions people being able to buy in the same type of health plan as congress and mentions negotiating with pharmaceutical companies. McCain mentions a fitness initiative and the $5000 health-care tax credit. McCain asks what the fine is for not getting involved in his health insurance mandate. Obama replies, "Absolutely zero". He attacks McCains health care tax credit, and he is right that McCain will be taxing health care benefits (bad move Charlie), and that most health care policies cost more than $5000 (about $12,000). Insurance companies will cherry pick and exclude patients from coverage (true). McCain defends the status quo of the current health care system with multiple insurance systems. News flash...it hasn't worked. Premiums have skyrocketed.

Sorry was busy during the past half hour, but overall, I think I have to give this one to McCain. Obama won the first two debates and McCain won this final one. Probably won't make a difference as Obama has a 14 point lead.

Biden on Indians

2008-10-15T11:45:00.002-04:00

Another "faithful reader" passes along the story about Joe Biden and his potentially racist remarks towards Indians (from India, not American Indians). Just to refresh your memory, Biden said the following back in 2006:

"In Delaware, the largest growth in population is Indian-Americans moving
from India. You cannot go to a 7-Eleven or a Dunkin' Donuts unless you have a
slight Indian accent. I'm not joking.”

Biden has had a long history of "foot-in-mouth" gaffes over the years, including the remarks about Obama being a "clean, articulate" black man, and recently asked a paralyzed person to 'stand up' for applause at a campaign rally.

These remarks were stereotypical, but I do not think the intent behind them was derogitory. He was trying to point out how infiltrated Indians are in Delaware. And, he was not trying to say that ALL Indians work at 7-11, rather the converse, that most 7-11s have Indians working at them (which, in fact, is largely true). It is a clear fact that, as a whole, Indians are bright, hard-working, successful people. Biden is not that dumb, he just says dumb things. Of note, the Indian-American Republican council has forgiven him.

Lynch Mob Mentality

2008-10-15T11:42:00.002-04:00

Haven't had a chance to fully watch this video since I'm at work right now, but reliable sources have also passed this on as a must see statement on McCain vs. Obama from Keith Olbermann.

I'll comment on it later.

More Reasons to Avoid Bottled Water

2008-10-15T11:34:00.003-04:00

Back in January, I had pointed out at least 4 reasons to avoid excessive drinking of bottled water. Now, there's another reason...there are contaminants in bottled water. While the water is still within EPA standards, and thus, legally safe, it really is no purer than standard tap water. (thanks to a faithful reader pointing this out in the comments section...I felt it should be highlighted).

P.S. Have you noticed that many of the bottles have gone to these hourglass-shaped designs? The claim is that it reduces the amount of plastic used to make the bottle by about 30%. Nice move by the companies (financially and for the environment).

Good Week, Bad Week

2008-10-14T20:04:00.005-04:00

Good week for:
1. Scholar athletes, after a report from the NCAA revealed that the graduation rate for these student-athletes increased to 79%, an all-time high. However, only 60% of athletes in men's baseball, football and basketball are only graduating. Overall, this is encouraging, but there still needs to be a better metric. Are more graduating because of more help (i.e., getting answers to test and super easy courses)? Or, are they truly achieving more academic success? Perhaps they can examine how many progress successfully into the work-force or go on to graduate school.

2. Googlers, as researchers at UCLA found that searching the internet improves cognitive function over time. Now just don't search the internet while drinking alcohol, as this will offset the effect, as researchers at Boston University found that alcohol results in brain shrinkage.

3. AIG executives, after they partied in a luxury resort one week after the US government gave them an $85 billion bailout. This is disgusting and these people should be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.

Bad week for:

1. Government oversight, when a former government auditor revealed that an agency within the Department of the Interior that was supposed to help regulate the oil industry, was routinely engage in unethical practices, including bribes and sexual favors. This report is nauseating, but is blatant evidence for how the oil industry has congress and the government wrapped around their finger.

2. Adam "Pacman" Jones, who got into trouble, yet again, after he brawled with one of his bodyguards in a hotel last weekend. He was suspended for 4 games by the commissioner. This man is out of control, and he should be banned from the NFL. He has repeatedly demonstrated that he just cannot behave. A man is paralyzed because of him. He is a supreme troublemaker. Playing in the NFL is not a right, it's a privilege.

3. Not having a prenuptial agreement, after a Cambodian man literally sawed off half of his house, leaving half to his wife (see above image).

4. The "Father of Conservatism", after his son, Christopher Buckley, a writer for the National Review, officially endorsed Barack Obama over John McCain. He had many criticisms of McCain, including his changing stances on issues, his anger, negative attacks, and also his choice of VP candidate. He also praised the demeanor and intellect of Obama. That is impressive honesty. You've got to admire someone in that type of spotlight who has the courage to say those types of things rather than blindly following one party or the other.

Holy Cow!

2008-10-13T18:15:00.002-04:00

In the words of the late, great Phil Rizzuto....HOLY COW!! The markets EXPLODED upward today. The DOW was up 936 points (an all-time record). It appears that the coordinated efforts that came out of the G7 meeting on Friday and from European leaders on Sunday to back up banks (2 trillion dollars in Europe) and free up the credit markets finally relieved some fears. This allowed the follow-through day to occur today in the markets after the wildly volatile day on Friday. The gap up held and it was steady buying throughout the day for 10-11% gains on most of the indices.

This DOES NOT mean it is the start of a brand new bull market. The market is only back to the point it was last Wednesday. But it certainly is promising. The healthiest thing for an intermediate term rally would actually be consolidation (a pull-back) for a couple of days. Today involved panic buying (people not wanting to miss the huge rally) just as last week was manifested by panic selling. The truth will come on a pull back. Will the sellers re-emerge? Will the bulls step up and defend the recent low? Will we put in a HIGHER low, and big the classic "stair-step" upwards? Then we will see. For now, let's call it a great day, and take it one day at a time. While the price action was bullish, this rally was way overdue. On the bearish-side, extreme governmental invention was needed to stave off disaster. The fact is, we still may be facing a pretty hard recession, and company earnings will likely be less than stellar for some time to come.

Futures

2008-10-12T19:43:00.003-04:00

Early check on the futures markets shows that the major indices are up 3-4% in early trading. This COULD be the intermediate-term bottom folks. We now have two major ingredients in place: 1) Very oversold conditions; 2) A "reversal" day (futures down big, gap down hard, rally into the close and close at high of day in positive territory)...it was almost perfect (indices closed slightly negative). We could now have the 3rd and final piece: A follow-through day (major accumulation day on heavy volume). If the futures remain up large, the gap open doesn't fall apart, and the markets stay strong until the close, this 3rd criterion will be fulfilled. That should lead to a nice 15-25% rally up until we meet heavy resistance at around 10,000-10,500 on the Dow. This is the area from which the markets went into free-fall and will also be where the decline 20 and 50 day moving averages will be located after the rally. Thus, this should only be a bounce within a primary down trend. In addition, there still could be extreme price swings in both directions given the unprecedented level of the volatility index (VIX- closed near 70 on Friday), so you may have to stomach big turns for the next several days. More cautious investors may want to let the dust settle some more before making sizable entries.

Happy trading and good luck!

The Psychology of Tipping

2008-10-12T19:17:00.001-04:00

Great article in the NYT today entitled "Why Tip?". Basically it discusses the pros and cons of tipping in restaurants and details the story of a restaurant in San Diego that has abandoned tips and placed a service charge in place for all meals. I have to admit, I haven't thought about tipping much lately...I pretty much standardly tip 20% without thinking about it. I don't really factor in the quality of service, and I honestly can't remember any times that the service was so bad that I even had to think about reducing the tip amount.

The main reason the owner of the San Diego restaurant eliminated tips was because the staff was squabbling over money, including waiters angling for better shifts and tables, and the kitchen workers didn’t feel they were getting a fair share of the profits. One of waitress interviewed for the piece claims she can concentrate on the job better now because she's not focused on kissing up for good tips. The counter-argument, of course, is that by leaving the size of the tip up to the discretion of the customer, it places incentive on the waitstaff to provide the best service possible. However, a study found that there is only a 2% correlation between the quality of service and quality of tip, thus overall, the incentives may be diminished.It would have been interesting to know if the quality of service improved or declined after elimination of the tipping rules at that restaurant (or at others that have done the same thing).

How do you all feel? Do you feel that tipping gives you leverage in obtaining better service? Do you change the size of tip based on quality of service or only reserve that for only major offensive violations in quality? A lot of restaurants do have gratuity included for parties > 6...is quality of service diminished for bigger parties? In Europe, where tipping is much smaller, how does the quality of service compare on a systematic basis? (in my experience quality in Europe has been good). Do you give bigger tips at restaurants where the waitstaff are forced to memorize all of the specials of the day and recite them without notes vs. with notes? (although impressive, I don't think I have ever decreased my tip size for the restaurants in which they allowed the waitstaff to use notes).

Can cockroaches live without a head?

2008-10-12T12:48:00.002-04:00

I couldn't help but click on this headline story on MSN.com (ok, it wasn't a headline story, but it was on the front page). Amazingly, they can live for about a month without their head. They don't need their heads to breath and ultimately die of dehydration. That's why their indestructable! An entomologist at Delaware Valley College, who carefully decapitated cockroaches, found that although they live for weeks, their learning is quite impaired.

There is an interesting quiz on insects on the Mythbusters page on Discovery.com.

Finally, A Bottom?????

2008-10-12T10:16:00.006-04:00

What a wild day for the stock market on Friday. The Dow was down 600 pts in the first half hour and broke below 8000. This was followed by a massive rally, all the way to the area of the closing of the previous day's close. However, the bears stepped in again and produced a slow and steady decline again throughout the day back to below 8000. It would have been very ominous for Monday if we fell below that opening low. Then, around 3 PM, like like the Phoenix rising out of the ashes, the market started a 1000 point rally in a matter of less than an hour. At 3:45 the rally fizzled, and prices fell back 300 points, producing a negative close (-128 points). If one only saw the closing prices, one would conclude that it was a quiet day for the market. WRONG! An analogy for football fans out there, it was the equivalent of one of Barry Sanders famous criss-crossing spinning backcutting runs that netted a 1 yard loss. Check out the intraday chart below to see this volatility.

Thus, the major question is whether we saw the "bottom" on Friday. Some have remarked that it is very rare to make a "bottom" in the market on a Friday. However, data from the last 68 intermediate-term lows (at least 3 month low), shows that although Mondays and Tuesdays are the most likely days for the low to occur, Friday surprisingly, is the not the least common day, but instead the 3rd most common day to create an intermediate term low.

Day of Week # %
Monday 16 24%
Tuesday 20 29%
Wednesday 11 16%
Thursday 8 12%
Friday 13 19%

Check out this article from Jason Geopart at SentimentTrader.com. He provides data and accompanying charts from all previous market crashes. As you can see from history, the "low" after the crash was always challenged again. Things are not going to go straight up from here. "V" bottoms are very very rare. There is often a period of backing and filling.

Furthermore, I did some 'word on the street' investigation this weekend at the mall. I asked almost everyone I saw about the volume of customers and actual spending. Nearly every employee/worker noted a decrease in both volume of shoppers and actual spending, including those at the car wash, Bloomingdales, the men's shoes department at Nordstrom, and college students trying to raise money for kids with cancer. The only place where things were mobbed and the employees reported no decline in shopping and spending over the past several months was the women's shoe department.

So, in summary, we may have a tradable low in the market. Conditions are extremely ripe for a good relief rally given extremely oversold conditions (only 1% of stocks are above 40 day moving averag). But, let price action in the early week confirm that we saw the low on Friday. Is it going to be a final low in the bear market? Probably not. Look at this longer term chart of the Dow. It would be very unlikely to just abruptly stop the decline here and not retest the lows at around 7500 from the 2001-2003 bear market.

And, caution from an excellent technical analyst, Brian Shannon, who gives some historical bear market perspective on his blog alphatrends.net:

Dow Jones October 1929: Over a 23 day period, the Dow lost 49% of its value,
but that was just the start of the bear market during which the Dow would
eventually lose 89% of its value (386.10 to 40.56). How many people do you think
called the October 1929 low of 195 "the bottom" only to get decimated by the
continued weakness over the next 3 years? We remain in a bear market and ALL
rallies should be treated as guilty until proven innocent, meaning you need to
maintain a super strong defense. Do not be too quick to call Friday's low "the
bottom", there are serious flaws in our economic system and a lot of closets
with ugly contents are still being opened.

If you're quick and have some guts, it may be profitable to risk some capital now on the long-side, but don't go all in just yet.

Free Fallin'

2008-10-09T21:12:00.003-04:00

The stock market continues its extremely rapid descent. The markets are not behaving like they do, even in "regular bear markets". Typically, there are viscous snap-back rallies even in the midst of a bear market. The price declines are simply remarkable and historic. Look at the chart. I said the other night that the Dow will hit 8500 soon, but I didn't expect it would be this week. People are simply liquidating their 401Ks, and institutional investors are just not stepping in. No one wants to hold positions overnight, as there is just too much bad news that keeps cropping out overnight.

I'm extremely concerned that the market decline will lead to an even deeper recession due to decreased spending. Simply, millions of people who have been piling money into 401Ks, IRA, and standard investment accounts are going to cut their discretionary spending as they have seen their wealth shrink. I know it will cut back my spending...fewer new clothes, big screen TVs, DVDs, expensive dinners. Consumer spending accounts for 70% of GDP. Car sales are plummeting. Did you see that GM's stock is at a 58-year low? So much for buy and hold strategies, right?

People keep calling me telling me to buy stocks now because they are so cheap. Well, you could have said they were cheap 2 weeks ago, and now their 20-30% lower. Let the market show you the bottom. Feel comfortable missing the first 5% rally. It's much better than losing 10% in one day. Please.

Now, to cheer up, go to NBC.com to watch the videos from the special edition of Thursday night SNL if you haven't seen it. Go play with your kids, if you have children. Tell someone you love them. Watch this video of Dana Carvey on the Tonight Show last night doing some great impressions. He's still got the skills.

Monkey Waiters

2008-10-08T22:38:00.004-04:00

Ok, we need to lighten the mood. Watch this video (about 40 seconds in) to see monkees functioning as waiters at a restaurant in Japan. It's pretty remarkable and cute.

Otherwise, it's all doom and gloom. The economy is tanking, a coordinator world-wide rate cut fails to stimulate the plunging stock market, there's less than a month until we elect a new President. It's certainly not an enviable position (i.e., becoming POTUS). Whoever it is is going to have to deal with this economy, the credit crisis, high unemployment, 2 wars, global warming, a huge federal debt. One candidate has virtually no executive experience, and, while the other candidate may be more experienced, he is old, grumpy, uninspired, and has the equivalent of Miss Teen South Carolina as his running mate (and possible replacement President if he should fall ill).

Uggghhhh..................

Townhall Debate

2008-10-07T21:37:00.010-04:00

Debate about to wrap up...haven't paid as close attention as I did to the VP debate, but it seems at first blush, that both gave relatively coherent answers, and reiteriated a lot of the points they have been making for months now. Both had good answers to whether Russia is an "evil empire". McCain tried to stress his experience, especially on foreign policy. Obama was overall more relaxed. I agreed with Obama's line on prioritization of major issues (and the order- energy first)...it was pragmatic and comforting.

I don't know. It seems like everything is falling apart at the seams in this country, but I don't know if either of them instilled confidence in the American people that they can turn this situation around. McCain has the albatross of being linked with Bush, and this disaster is happening on the Bush watch. Obama has the albatross of voting on the liberal side, which may or may not be good for some parts of the economy.

In the end, both held their own, and thus, although a solid job for McCain, Obama comes out the winner, as he has the lead in the national polls. McCain needed a home run, but I don't think he got one. Good closing comments for both. I will look at the post-debate transcripts to see if there is something big that I missed. Also, post your comments.

This is a philosophical issue between right and left, but Obama is definitely going to win points on considering health care a right, rather than a privilege. McCain said it is a responsibility. Personally, I think it is unjust that health care in this country is tied to your employment status and your specific employer. Just doesn't work efficiently and doesn't lead to good public health.

McCain: Not sure how he is defining "victory" in Iraq. What exactly does that mean?

McCain: Accuses Obama of voting for a fat bill with tons of subsidies for oil companies. Shame on you, Senator (Obama).

Obama: Good points on energy plan. McCain voted against alternative energy 23 times? Not a good move, Senator (McCain).

McCain: Tax credits (e.g., health care credits) won't do much for people in this horrible economy (lower wages, lack of jobs).

McCain: Has a nice line that Obama said he would forgo tax increases if economy was bad. McCain says, "I've got some news for you Senator, the news is bad." Nice zinger (and fundamentally correct).

Obama: I disagree with him. We cannot raise corporate taxes at this time. Curbs on CEO packages, yes, but if corporate taxes are raised as we head INTO a HUGE recession, it will mean leaner balance sheets and thus lower wages for workers and fewer jobs. Taxing companies may actually paradoxically decrease tax revenues to the government. Consumer spending accounts for 70% of GDP. We will not get out of debt by raising corporate taxes (or raising taxes on people making more than $250,000). The time to raise taxes has now passed. We need our economy to be thriving, and corporate tax increases will be like a firehose dousing out a fading campfire.

Markets Devastated

2008-10-06T23:11:00.007-04:00

Today was another historic day on Wall Street. Markets plunged again, as the "sell the news" reaction to the Wall Street bailout package passed by Congress on Friday continued in the markets today. At one point the Dow was down over 700 points (after being down 777 points last Monday). A late day rally, due to rumors of a coordinated global central bank rate cut, provided a significant rebound, even though most major indices ended down about 4%.

Apparently, Jim Cramer was on the Today Show this morning telling people to sell. Unfortunately, this is not very good advice, at least not right now. I am not a perma-bull. In fact, even though my blog was shut down for some time, as those of you who speak to me on a regular basis know, I actually have been quite bearish for the past several weeks.

The market will still have more downside to come, and the Dow will probably hit around 8,500, however, this price retracement will likely occur after we experience a short-term rally. Why am I suddenly bullish? First, again, it is only on a short-term basis (on the order of 4-12 weeks). Second, we have hit extremes on mutiple technical and sentiment indicators which are all indicating that we are about to bounce. For example, the VIX (volatility index) hit an all-time high today (56), new 52-week lows his an all-time high, and the % of stocks above their respective 40-day moving averages is only 4%. Stochastics are showing over-sold conditions, and the markets printed a "hammer" candlestick today, which is often a good indicator of a reversal in trend.

We may still go down tomorrow, and may even retest the lows that were experienced intra-day today, but things cannot get much more oversold than they are right now, and the "rubber band" that defines the price action of the markets will undergo a snap-back rally. We don't know how far the rally will go, as there are multiple levels of price resistance overhead in the forms of horizontal and moving average resistance, however, selling what you own today, or even tomorrow, would be at a time when a short to intermediate bottom might be emerging on the charts. The time to sell will be when the next rally loses steam. Why then?

Because the stock market is undergoing a major correction, and rightfully so, as this is one of the worst financial crises in the history of the U.S. Joblessness claims are only going to start ramping up signficantly after the new year. Yes, the market "looks ahead" by about 6 months, but folks, sad to say, this economy is not going to get better in the next 6 months. We will be looking at 1-3 years of economic slowdown/recession. The charts look horrific, and it will take a significant amount of time to correct the extensive technical damage on all of the charts. Bear market rallies are expected, and they can be vigorous, but don't lose sight of the long-term trend (down, down, down).

Hang in there.

Offshore Drilling

2008-10-05T19:39:00.002-04:00

Why we shouldn't be increasing offshore drilling for oil: Exhibit B- oil spills that destroy our coastlines and marine life (this one is due to damage to the oil rigs from Hurricaine Ike).

(Exhibit A was the government's own study that indicated that the impact on the price of oil would be negligible and that it would take 10 years for the oil to come on-line).

Let's follow Boone Pickens' plan for alternative energy.

This one of my favorite commericals for wind energy.

SNL Parodies

2008-10-05T16:38:00.002-04:00

In case you missed it, SNL had two must see skits last night.

First, Tina Fey continued her string of remarkable impressions of Gov. Palin in a spoof of her debate showdown with Joe Biden. She has her down perfectly.

Second, a funny yet scathing look at our leaders and the handling of the economy and the bailout package. Not only are the impressions amazing (particularly the one of Barney Frank), but the portrayal of the stereotypical American citizens is dead on.

Wonderful stuff.

O'Reilly Loses It

2008-10-04T23:42:00.002-04:00

Caught this video on Youtube. Bill O'Reilly goes off on Barney Frank. Even those I am not a fan of Bill-O, I have to admit that he has a point on this one.

Basically, not only has Barney Frank been deceitful, but so have many other members of congress and many execs at the financial companies. Policies enacted several years ago that allowed lending and awarding of mortgages to people that simply didn't deserve them have contributed significantly to this financial crisis. The "bailout package" that was just passed on Friday is not going to work. It's not going to stop the recession, it's not going to bring jobs back, it's not going to improve the plunging stock market. It's laden with good pork (temporary fix of AMT, tax subsidies for alternative energy) and bad pork (tax exemption for wooden areas, wool research, auto racing tracks, rum from Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands). This package is going to increase our debt and tax burden for decades to come. The country is headed for hard times ahead.

In Progress Debate Updates

2008-10-02T21:24:00.027-04:00

Hard to know who won this one. Palin carried out an effective gameplan put forth by her coaches. She didn't say anything as ridiculous as she had in her interviews with Couric. It certainly was not a knockout by Biden. She may have connected with a lot of people in America with her "folksy" talk. Same people who wanted to hang out with Bush at a BBQ. However, Palin wasn't really challenged on some of her answers, by either Gwen Ifill or Biden. She probably gained more than Biden tonight, given that many Republicans were calling for her to step aside.

Post-debate fact check.

10:32 PM. Palin- Will fight for America, middle-class, proud to be an American, need freedoms. Biden- most important election, last 8 years have been poor, need change in economic and foreign policy, can accomplish anything if work hard.

10:28 PM. Closing statements coming.

10:23 PM. Biden calls out "the Maverick". He points out how his positions have mimicked Bush's all along. Excellent rebuttal.

10:22 PM. She calls McCain the Maverick again!! And again a few sentences later! In reality, McCain has not been much a 'maverick' over the past several years. He has become quite predictable and partisan.

10:20 PM. Both trying to connect with American people, mentioning sitting around kitchen table.

10:13 PM. Another wink. She must have watched the Town Hall Debate Bush v. Kerry in 2004- Bush was winking at the whole crowd.

10:11 PM. "Say it ain't so Joe". She was waiting all night to use that!

10:08 PM. Palin mentions "maverick" again. That's enough, please.

10:05 PM. Palin mentions divestment of Alaskan holdings in Darfur. She avoids whether we should intervene in some manner.

10:03 PM. Palin calling out Biden for voting for the war before voting against it.

10:01 PM. 1 hour in, and I have to admit, Palin has certainly exceeded the expectations that I, and many, had going into this. The "Hustler"?

10 PM. Biden says General in Afghanistan says surge will not work in that country, right after Palin suggests this as a strategy difference.

9:55 PM. Biden calling out McCain/Palin...how will policies be different from George W. Bush....

9:54 PM. Biden recounting the mistakes of the current administration regarding policies and elections in the Middle East. Very powerful (and true).

9:48 PM. Palin with somewhat cogent arguments re: Iran.

9:46 PM. Biden making great points about where the heart of terrorism is located (not Iraq).

9:42 PM. Touche. Biden comes back with good counterpoints (re: timeline, etc).

9:41 PM. Palin making a nice point by pointing out the fact that Biden called out Obama about his votes on funding for the troops.

9:39 PM. Here comes foreign policy questions.

9:38 PM. Biden's right on with rights for same-sex couples. Palin has a pretty good answer as well. Points for both.

9:35 PM. Good for Biden going after the stupid "drill, drill, drill" mantra. Oh, gosh, then she comes back and corrects him on the mantra ("drill, baby, drill"). I'm going to puke.

9:33 PM. Circular arguments on climate change. If cyclical and not man-made, then nothing we can do. How many times is she going to say "energy independence"? Wow, she just mentioned conservation. I have to give her props for that. It's about time a politician mentions this as an option. Biden's arguments on global warming much more direct and objective.

9:25 PM. We are 25 minutes in, and Palin is holding up. Again, the expectations were so low, so it's not saying much. She is trying to pour on the charm with the repeated winks, big smile, and cute little words. She's been practicing a great deal....she's sticking to the script.

Great Hustler or Great Debacle????

2008-10-02T08:39:00.004-04:00

Folks, I'm back. I can't take it anymore, there is just too much to say. Wall Street is crumbling, banks are failing, congress is scurrying around to pass a "bailout package", which will only be a temporary band-aide on the overall crisis, and, oh, something else is going on.....Sarah Palin is running for Vice President!!

I just cannot believe what my eyes have seen, and more importantly, what my ears have heard. I hope you have been following her interviews with Katie Couric. What is she talking about? Her answers are incomprehensible and seem to lack the knowledge needed by someone running for the 2nd highest office in the country!

Tonight is the vice-presidential debate. From the buzz on the streets, it is the most anticipated debate of all-time. Biden should be able to clean her clock, unless he commits his achilles heel of verbal diarrhea necessitating a "foot in mouth moment" (e.g., Obama is so clean and articulate").

In preparation for tonight, please, please, please watch these videos. Why? First, you will get to laugh a little. Second, you may a chance for a good cry (realizing that she has a chance to hold the VP office). Third, you will see the preamble, the set-up for tonight. It is either one big hoax, a giant "hustle" (in the memory of the late and great Paul Newman), and she will do "well" tonight as she has set expectations sooooooo low, or it will be an absolute catastrophe. There is no middle ground with her.

Please watch these videos if you haven't seen them:

1. Her answer on the economy and the bailout

2. Trying to name one other time McCain has supported stricter regulation

3. Trying to name one newspaper she reads (hint: she can't name one!!)

4. Trying to name one other Supreme Court except Roe v. Wade (she names Roe v. Wade again!!!).

5. Palin talking about the Rick Davis case

Wow. She is in WAY OVER HER HEAD. If someone out there can defend her possibly become our VP, please post your comments, because if we thought we had fun for the past 8 years with "Bushisms", the next 4 years will provide an exponential number of "Palinisms".

But, seriously, this is sad, because it shouldn't be a joke, and McCain could legitimately die while in office. I am not trying to be mean, but anyone who looks at her performance objectively has got to admit that she simply is not a strong enough candidate.

Good Week Bad Week

2008-07-20T10:20:00.003-04:00

Good Week for:

1. Being a dumb enophile, after Steven Levitt from Freakonomics reported on his blog that two studies (one that he performed and one more recent from the American Association of Wine Economists) demonstrated that people who are not wine experts had a very hard time differentiating expensive from cheap wine (when blinded). Levitt recommends that no one should become a wine expert, so that you can save money yet still enjoy it. The mind is so powerful and thus can be such a nuisance.

2. Any enophile, after scientists at Hebrew University in Jerusalem found that animals fed red wine along with beef had much lower levels of fat-derived toxins in their blood than animals fed beef alone. This may explain the French paradox- the low rate of heart-disease among wine-drinking French despite a high-fat diet.

3. The Great White Shark, as Greg Norman entered the final round of the British Open with a 2 stroke lead. Why is this so remarkable? First, Norman would be the older person ever to win a major golf championship (previous record 46 years of age). Second, Norma has not even been on the radar in the world of golf for years. His last tour victory was in 1997. I hope Norman keeps this lead (he's lost 7 of 8 majors in which he held the lead entering the final round). Also, see my blog post on Norman from April.

Bad Week for:

1. Doing laundry, after a women in Maine discovered an 8 foot python mixed up with her load of clothes in her washing machine. It was successfully removed by an animal control expert.

2. Antartic inhabitants, after hundreds of baby penguins washed up dead on the shores of Rio de Janeiro. The reasons for why this is occuring is unknown. Some theorize that overfishing has forced penguins to swim futher from shore and get caught up in strong currents that carry them away, while others blame polution as many are found drenched in petroleum. I still think that the whole process that the Emperor Penguins engage in to mate and raise their young is one of the most amazing things in nature.

3. Fidel's concept of socialism, when Raul Castro said "Socialism means social justice and equality, but equality of rights, of opportunities, not of income." The new leader of Cuba has been loosening Fidel's iron grip, granting Cubans some new rights and privielges, such as the ability to buy consumer goods such as cellular phones, DVD players, and washing machines. Also, restrictions on foreign travel have been relaxed and farmers can decide for themselves what to plant. Now, it remains to be see how these people will be able to earn higher incomes in order to afford these "luxuries" (things we have taken for granted). The infrastructure to support entrepreneurship and capitalism still doesn't really exist. Thus, as access to the internet and international TV increases, there may be a social revolt, and young "capitalists" may flee the country for better economic opportunities.

Rebuttal

2008-07-17T22:44:00.005-04:00

Oil plunged again today (as did natural gas, steel, coal, ag names- basically anything that has had a tremendous run over the past several months).

An avid reader of the blog stated the following in the comments section: "I just am dubious that all of your charts coalesced the same day, and oil buyers and sellers coincidentally decided to apply lower prices to oil the same day W said we'd finally act like Norway when it comes to oil drilling."

To this, I offer an alternative explanation as to why the precipitous drop in oil/energy/commodities. As Addison Armstrong, Tradition Energy Director Of Market Research explained tonight on Fast Money:

We’re seeing liquidation pure and simple, which is being driven by the weak balance sheets of the banks. They’ve been cleaning them up by raising cash and they’re doing that by selling oil and other commodities.”That suggests at least some investors are selling crude contracts even though they really don't want to be sellers

OK, listen, companies report earnings on a quarterly basis. A large number of companies, including some of the big financial institutions reported this week. The large brokerages, such as JP Morgan, Merrill Lynch, Citigroup are reporting (or have reported) earnings. These brokerages are (or were) invested heavily in commodities, including oil. Now, as you know, the stock prices of any financial company has been in absolute free-fall for the past year. So, how do these huge companies stop the bleeding? They sell what was working (commodity positions),
raise cash, improve the balance sheet, and report earnings that are better than expected. The selling of energy stocks/ETFs is the reason why the price of oil and energy started dropping, as shown in the chart in the previous post, well BEFORE President Bush made any announcements on offshore drilling. And, sad to say, this implies that the price of oil is NOT completely dependent on supply and demand, but instead was artificially elevated by speculators/investors. You cannot tell me that demand dropped and supply rose that precipitously in the past 2 weeks to cause the marked fall in price.

Also, for those who doubt the power of technical analysis, and for those who refer to the big price moves as "all of the charts coalescing in one day", I submit this point. Technicians (half of active traders) follow price action, and when something moves, the buying or selling is amplified if a key technical level is breached or broken.

For example, look at the chart of this stock, VVUS, below. It doesn't matter what the company does, but I will tell you that the company has nothing to do with oil or energy. Anyway, what caused it to move dramatically up in the middle of May and then the end of June into early July? Are you telling me that the fundamentals of this company changed TWICE within the span of 2
months? NO WAY. It was trading on technicals....the market watchers saw it "break out" of its trading range and piled in with loads of cash and scooped up this stock. Then, after taking a breather (consolidation) it resumed its remarkable run upward. This is classic momentum of a trading vehicle. And, all of oil and energy and commodities are publically traded, thus their price can move dramatically based on the money flow from hedge funds, mutual funds, institutional investors, and individual investors. So, I will give GW Bush ZERO credit for dropping the price of oil.

P.S. I don't want to clutter this with a new post, but 2 things Don. First, why does this chart of Freeport-McMoran, a gold and copper mining company, look almost identical to the oil/energy chart I posted? All of the commodities are moving together, nothing to do with the plan to drill. Second, the "sell signal" on the XLE energy ETF was made not on the day Bush made the announcement. It was made at the beginning of June when the price fell from 90 down through the 50 day moving average (the blue line that was in an uptrend). When it broke below 85.56 on June 3rd, that was a major bearish move, and the ensuing weakness was not unexpected. These are fundamental principles of technical analysis.

Random Musings

2008-07-17T00:31:00.004-04:00

1. Israel is making a mistake by performing unequal hostage swaps. They exchanged 5 militant Lebanese prisoners for the remains of 2 Israeli soldiers. I know it is their moral code, but this will only encourage more kidnappings/killings of Israelis. They keep giving their enemies positive reinforcement with these exchanges. Dumb.

2. Double-standard on the N-word. I hate it. Read the story. Again, Jesse Jackson deserves no respect by the media or the population at large.

3. Score one for Dr. Aktins (and the Mediterraneans), as the low-carb (high-fat high-protein) and Mediterranean diets were found to be superior for weight loss to a low-fat diet after 2 years of follow-up.

4. The JibJab crew has another great political satire video. Very funny, as usual.

5. The price of oil fell sharply for the 2nd straight day. Jury is still out whether the long-term trend is still intact and this is a correction (just as all of the other commodities have corrected signficantly over the past few weeks). Also, few, if any, stories tied this week's decline to Bush's wonderful announcement about moving forward with plans to drill offshore. In fact, given the drop in consumption (driving and flying have decreased, companies are figuring out more efficient ways to transport goods), it may be that the decreased demand has increased supply, thus decreasing the price of oil. Furthermore, the continued panic about further economic downturns in the US and around the world is not bullish for the price of oil. The prices of oil are also driven by the large amount of ETFs that are tied to commodities. Investors looking for a safe-haven in this bear market that has ravished the financial sector have moved lots of money to energy stocks/ETFs. However, as witnessed by the monster rally in the stock market today, led by the 10% surge in financials, it appears that sector rotation is taking place, and money is shifting back from energy to financials. I wonder, did Bush's announcement of drilling offshore also fuel the rally in the financial sector today.

Also, let's look at the chart of the XLE (iShares Energy ETF). From a technical analysis standpoint, energy has been weakening for the past several weeks. The chart was calling for this sell-off. Why?

1. RSI at top of chart has been very weak.

2. Double top formed in main price action

3. MACD (another momentum indicator) has been very weak/declining for weeks.

4. Money flow indicators (On balance volume and Chalkin money flow, both at bottom of chart) indicate that net flow of money has been OUT of energy since the end of May/early June.

So, the announcement by Bush to drill offshore was like punching a man while he was already beaten up and laying on the ground bleeding. Of course, people are going to give him the credit for dropping the price of oil. The timing and the chart do NOT support this whatsoever.

Good Week Bad Week

2008-07-14T20:58:00.003-04:00

Good week for:

Not much

Bad week for:

1. Tilapia, after a Wake Forest University study found that tilapia, a farm-raised corn-fed fish, actually contains high levels of omega-6 fatty acids (pro-inflammatory) and very little omega-3 fatty acids. In fact, tilapia contains more omega-6 than bacon or doughnuts. I'm still waiting for the transgenic pigs rich in omega-3 to come to market. Yummy and healthy!

2. The Clydesdale, the symbol of American and Anheuser-Busch, after the St. Louis-based company was sold to the Belgian company InBev (makers of Stella Artois and Becks). My first concern is what will happen to the Budweiser Super Bowl commericials. Will they continue???

3. Following your father's lead, after George W. Bush lifted an executive ban on offshore drilling that was put in place by his father in 1990. Just a few years after his "addicted to oil" speech, George just wants another hit of the pipe (forward to about 5 min 30 secs on this video for some laughs). As I've outlined before, the government's own studies have indicated that this manuever would have little effect on the price of oil...we will follow closely. I doubt this will have much of an effect.

4. Humans, after a 149-page scientific report from the government oulined many reasons why global warming will impact health, including an increase in smog (increases risk of death), heat waves, infectious diseases (particularly those carried by ticks), and from wildfires. It's too bad the White House officials didn't even want to read the report...they wouldn't open the email!!

5. The Colonel, after a police-officer's family in Omaha won $40,000 in a lawsuit against KFC because of an episode of severe illness after eating at the fast-food chain. The cause of illness? Employees at this KFC would routinely spit and urinate onto food to create "special servings" reserved for police officers. This hasn't been a good year for KFC. As you may recall, earlier this year a KFC in NYC was shut-down after video taken from the street showed several huge rats crawling around premises.

6. The Bull, after the stock market entered official Bear Market territory (down 2o% from recent highs). Ugghhhh....

Shots on the Left and Right

2008-07-10T22:18:00.006-04:00

Well, well...it seems both of the Presidential candidates are dealing with remarks that people "close" to their party have made.

Regarding Barack Obama, Jesse Jackson said another "memorable" (AKA ludicrous) thing. He said that "Obama is talking down to black people", and that he wants to "cut his nuts off". Watch Jesse make a little cut motion with his right arm immediately after he states it. The funny thing is that his apology pretty much consisted of him saying that he didn't know the microphone was on. What kind of excuse is that?!?!? Jesse Jackson is so pathetic. He has made a career of grabbing the spotlight on controversial issues and pretends to "crusade" for his people. Blacks don't even like him. He never could get even 5% of the vote in the primaries when he ran for the Democratic Party nominee for President. I don't even know why people interview him. Does anyone care what he has to say?

Oh, by the way, the quote from Obama that Jesse so inflamed? Here it is:

``Any fool can have a child. That doesn't make you a father,'' Obama, 46,
said at the Apostolic Church of God, which has more than 20,000 members. ``Too
many fathers are AWOL, missing from too many lives and too many homes.''

Good for you Barack...you're just telling the truth and trying to inspire some sense of responsibility in young black men, just like Bill Cosby and Charles Barkley have been trying to do for the past several years. Keep it up.

McCain's issue is a little less exciting. Former Senator Phil Gramm, one of McCain's economic advisors, said in an interview with the Washington Post that the economy is not so bad and that we have a "nation of whiners". McCain tried to distance himself from Gramm and showed his distaste for those comments. And check out where he wanted to send Mr. Gramm...

"I don't agree with Sen. Gramm," McCain said. "I believe that the person
here in Michigan that just lost his job isn't suffering a mental recession. I
believe the mother here in Michigan and around America who is trying to get
enough money to educate their children isn't whining."
"Phil Gramm does not speak for me," he said. "I speak for me."

Asked if there was any chance Gramm would be treasury secretary or
handle economic policy under a McCain administration, McCain quickly turned to
humor. "I think Sen. Gramm would be in serious consideration for ambassador to
Belarus, although I'm not sure the citizens of Minsk would welcome that," he
said.

I don't have too much to say about this. Obviously, McCain cannot openly agree with Gramm. That would be complete political suicide, as most polls show the economy is the number issue for voters at this time. Plus, the economy IS a big issue right now, isn't it???? GDP is nearly stagnant, fuel and food prices are at all-time highs, job losses are increasing, and our dollar is pathetically weak.

Things I Just Don't Get

2008-07-07T23:14:00.004-04:00

1. Why do people need to drive Hummers? I saw two tonight in a parking lot. This is CONNECTICUT, not the jungle or the deserts in the Middle East. It's a free country, and people can choose do drive whatever they want, but I still don't understand the mentality of the owners. They must be trying to make up for inadequate genital size. At least the high costs of fuel have caused a decrease in overall driving in the US and in SUV/light truck sales, so supply/demand continues to work efficiently.

2. Why is the American Academy of Pediatrics recommending cholesterol screening and treatment with statins starting at age 8? Granted, the amount of childhood obesity is continually increasing and leading to premature diabetes and heart disease, but why not strongly push exercise and healthy diets? The problem is partially genetic, but the creep of adult cardiac diseases into childhood is NOT from genetics, it is from poor behavioral patterns. I think we need a prominent athelete to take a cabinet position such as a "Secretary of Fitness". Recruit Michael Jordan or Magic Johnson for this position...or someone else that could really inspire kids to get off their butts, stop playing so many video games and start exercising. I do not think a lifetime of blood tests (to check cholesterol levels and monitor liver function) and 70+ years of exposure to statins (if they live that long) is a smart idea.

3. Why can tennis players hit a screeching 1st serve well over 100 times in a match and play every other day when baseball pitchers are babied and routinely are pulled when they throw about 100 pitches? The tennis players are swinging their arm and putting as much torque on their rotator cuff as major league pitchers. The serves in tennis often exceed 120 MPH. Then add all of the 2nd serves, forehands, and backhands to the total load on the shoulder. I think the current day major league pitchers are coddled far too much. Back in the day, it was commonplace for the great pitchers such as Koufax, Gibson, Drysdale, etc. to have more than 20 complete games. In 1968, Bob Gibson had 28 complete games!! Now, a pitcher is considered to have an amazing year if they have 3-4 complete games. They are put on strict "pitch counts" and pulled in the 6th or 7th inning. Then, starting pitchers get 4-5 days off until their next start. FYI, Nadal had 221 1st serves and Federer had 197 1st serves in their final match at Wimbledon yesterday!

4. How did the Colombian hostages surive after living in the jungle, eating terribly, being tortured, and experiencing severe infections for 5 1/2 years? It is an amazing story of human determination.

Don't "Aks", Don't tell

2008-07-07T22:58:00.004-04:00

Freakonomics is one of my favorite books, and lucky for me (and the world), Levitt and Dubner have continued their analyses of the culture on the NYTimes opinion page. They have a very interesting post regarding a U of Chicago study that examined whether sounding black (or Southern) influences one's salary. The study found that people who sounded black, as judged over the phone, earned 10% less than those who sounded white. Blacks who "sounded white" earned roughly the same amount as their white counterparts.

This is very interesting, as it provides ongoing evidence of racial discrimination in the U.S. This is unacceptable. However, while I do not condone any racial discrimination, common sense also tells us that speaking "ebonics" is not exactly compatible with a highly productive business/sales model. Furthermore, only the minority of blacks actually speak ebonics, but it only takes a few bad eggs to ruin it for the larger group and promote long-lasting stereotypes. Simply put, slang will never be widely accepted, and PARENTS and the school systems must do their best to teach children proper English. Bill Cosby had an excellent rant about this a few years ago. I agree with Bill.

We are on the precipice of potentially electing a black president of the United States for the first time. Many racial barriers in this country have been obliterated. Thus, it is not too much to ask our future generations, of any racial background, to speak English properly.

Nadal Ends Federer's Streak- Wins Wimbledon

2008-07-06T20:16:00.008-04:00

Today, Rafael Nadal of Spain, beat Roger Federer of Switzerland in one of the most amazing sporting events I have ever seen. It was an epic battle, the longest Wimbledon Men's final EVER at 4 hours 48 minutes. It didn't end until 4:15 EST (started at 9 AM....there were 2 rain delays).

The match itself was extremely intense. It was filled with drama. The last 3 sets all went to either tie-breakers or were extended (last set goes until someone wins by 2) after Nadal took an early 2 set lead. I hope many of you got to see it today. If you haven't...don't fret. ESPN Classic will be showing this "Instant Classic" at 7 PM Monday night. Aside from it being such a brilliantly played, intense, and exciting match, the drama was heightened even more by the story of these two giants entering this final match.

Consider these facts:

1. Federer had won FIVE straight Wimbledon titles, and won 40 straight matches at Wimbledon.
2. Federer had not lost ONE SET this entire tournament.

3. Nadal had lost the last 2 Wimbledon finals to Federer.

4. Despite Nadal's domination of Federer on clay, and his 4 French Open titles, Nadal had never beaten Federer in a major tournament except for the French.

5. Coming into the match, Federer has been ranked #1 in the ATP rankings for 231 consecutive weeks. Nadal has been ranked #2 for 154 weeks.

6. Nadal became the first to win the French Open and Wimbledon in the same year since 1980 (Borg).

The match certainly lived up to the hype and beyond. It was like Maximus vs. Commodus in the movie Gladiator. It was like Achilles vs. Hector in the movie Troy.

It had me thinking about the 10 best sports finals I have ever seen. Please add or argue with some of the choices on this list in the comments section. (they are not ranked in order)

1. Nadal defeats Federer, 2008 Wimbledon Final

2. NY Giants defeat the undefeated NE Patriots, Super Bowl XLII. The prologue to this game again contributed significantly to the greatness of this game. The Patriots were on the verge of an undeprecedented, historical undefeated season. The Giants were truly "David", who had been given little chance to win after a tumultuous season. However, sans Tiki Barber, and in Michael Strahan's final game, the G-Men shut down the mightly Patriots offense and won on one of the most dramatic drives in Super Bowl history.

3. Boston Red Sox defeat NY Yankees, 2004 AL Championship Series. Again, what a storyline entering this playoff series. The Red Sox had been without a World Series title in 86 years, while the Yankees had 26 World Series titles. The Red Sox had lost a bitterly contested playoff series in 2003 to the Yankees, that culminated with an 11th inning homerun by Aaron Boone, of all people, to put the final nail in the Sox that year. However, the 2004 series was magical for the Sox, as they battled back from a 3-0 deficit to win the final 4 games. Games 4, 5, and 6 were absolute classics, as game 4 and 5 were the 2 longest in ACLS history, going into the 12th and 14th innnings, respectively. Both wins involved blown saves by the best closer in history, Mariano Rivera. Game 6 was the Schilling "bloody sock" game. Game 7 was a blow-out, but occurred in the "House that Ruth Built", finally ending the Curse of the Bambino.

4. Villanova Wildcats defeat the Georgetown Hoyas, 1985 NCAA Mens College BB Championship. This was another David vs. Goliath match-up. The 8th seeded Wildcats shot 78.6% from the field, shut down the mighty Patrick Ewing, and pulled off one of the greatest upsets in NCAA history. I still remember little Rollie Massimino being mobbed in jubilation by his much taller teammates as time expired.

5. Texas Longhorns defeat USC Trojans, 2006 BSC Championship. There was no David vs. Goliath here...it was Goliath vs. Goliath. The Trojans had won 34 striaght games and were going for their 3rd straight NCAA title. The Trojans had the exhilarating Reggie Bush. The Longhorns had won 20 straight and had the powerful quarterback Vince Young. The play was incredible, and the ending was a thriller, with Texas pulling it out in a shootout, 41-38.

6. NY Mets defeat Boston Red Sox, 1986 World Series. The Mets had just finished pulling out a dramatic 6 game series with the Houston Astros, that including 3 extra-inning nailbiters, including the final game that went 16 innings. The Red Sox had just defeated the Angels after being one strike away from being eliminated in Game 5 on a dramatic home run by Dave Henderson to tie the game and send it into extra innings. The Red Sox came in to the WS looking for their first title since 1918. This series makes my list primarily for Game 6. I've outlined the drama of this game before on this blog here, so I won't do it again.

7. Boise State defeats Oklahoma Sooners, 2007 Fiesta Bowl. OK, this wasn't for the BSC Championship, but the game itself was probably the most dramatic college FB games I've ever seen. Boise St went into the 4th quarter with a 28-17 lead. Oklahoma scored 11 points (FG and TD + 2pt conversion) to tie the game with 1:26 left in 4th qtr. Boise St comes out to try to march down the field for a FG, and their QB gets picked-off, and the Sooner DB returns it for a 33 yd interception TD return. Game over, right? Wrong! On 4th and 18, down 7 points, Boise St complete a 50 yard "hook-and-ladder play" to tie the game with 7 seconds left. The games goes to OT, and Adrian Peterson takes the 1st handoff and races 25 yards for a go-ahead TD. Boise St, needing a TD to tie, gets a TD, and decides to go for the 2 pt conversion. They run a "Statue of Liberty" play for the 2 point conversion. Unbelievable.

I'm going to stop here for now...I will try to add 3 more games to this list. Please provide your suggestions.

Runaway Chimp

2008-07-01T23:15:00.005-04:00

OK, just a quick news piece. It is an unbelievable story. The story initially caught my eye because the link on the front page of CNN.com read "Toilet trained Chimp on the Loose". Given my fascination with toilets, I eagerly clicked on the link to read the story. He apparently can not only use the toilet, but can use a knife and fork.

A couple in California had raised the chimp for 30 years in their house until he was taken away for his violent behavior. There were distraut today when they heard he escaped and hired a search helicopter to find him. The chimp was taken away from the couple because he had bitten off someone's finger and mauled a policeman's hand.

Here are the hilarious things. First read about what happened to the couple when they were visiting him after he was taken away from them:

In 2005, when they took a cake to celebrate Moe's birthday with him, the
couple was viciously attacked by two other chimpanzees who had escaped their
cages. The chimps nearly killed St. James Davis, chewing off his nose, testicles
and foot and biting off chunks of his buttocks and legs, before the sanctuary owner shot the animals to death.

The other thing that made me laugh was when the man who owned him (the one who had his testicles chewed off), said the following to the media:

"He meant the world to us," St. James Davis said. "He was the best man at my wedding."

Good Week Bad Week

2008-06-30T21:01:00.003-04:00

Good week for:

1. Espana, after their national soccer team beat the Germans 1-0 in the Euro Cup Final yesterday. Spain had not won the title in over 44 years. The celebrations were wild in Spain overnight. Let's call it the world's largest fiesta!!!

2. Caged animals, when a giraffe helped 15 camels, 2 zebras, multiple llamas, and a pig escape from their cage at the traveling Dutch circus. That must have been quite a site to see these animals wandering through the town. Have you all seen the episode of Man vs. Wild when Bear Grylls guts a dead camel in the desert and lays down within it's carcass to show us how to protect ourselves from a sandstorm?

3. The people of earth, as a recent study found that happiness around the world (at least in 40 of the 52 countries studied over the time period 1981-2007) is increasing. The reasons why sunny disposition is increasing around the world are listed here:

Low-income countries such as India and China have experienced unprecedented
rates of economic growth; dozens of medium-income countries have democratized;
and there has been a sharp rise of gender equality and tolerance of ethnic
minorities and gays and lesbians in developed societies.

Bad week for:

1. Appeals, when Floyd Landis' bid to reclaim his Tour de France title was again denied by the courts. One of the best accounts I have come across of what might have happened, and the indisputable results of his urine testosterone tests is here. Floyd, give it up, and go join Roger Clemens in the "I have the worst defense ever against the evidence of the use of performance enhancing drugs" club.

2. Trying to sell your life, when an Australian man put his life up for sale on E-bay. He ended up selling his house, all his possessions, a trial spot for his job, and all of his contacts for about $382,000. Apparently, he was looking for $480,000. He was upset about the bad breakup he had with his wife and thus, was trying to start his life fresh. Another woman was trying to sell her house and heart on the internet. But, to me the all-time best utilization of the internet for one's prosperity was the young fellow in Canada who sold and bartered his way from a red paper clip all the way to a house in 14 separate trades. This guy was amazing. Please read about each trade by clicking on the photos at the top. My favorite trades revolved around Alice Cooper, but there were such funny offers for the apartment in Phoenix when the trade was still in question. Unfortunately, it looks like those offers are not archived on the website. One of the offers that I remember was a 24-hour lap dance from a Japanese stripper. No one can dance like that for 24 straight hours!! Plus, I don't think that would even be enjoyable for the guy...enough already!

3. Eating more (well, unless you live in Japan), as researchers at University of Texas Southwestern found that injecting latex into the face of cadavers decreased the aged look of a face and made the faces look younger. So, listen to your grandmothers, eat a 2nd helping, and plump up those cheeks!

More on govenmental control (e.g., fat tax)

2008-06-29T23:02:00.002-04:00

I started typing this as another comment in repsonse to the previous post, but I figured that since I had so much to say (and it's my blog), that I'd start a whole new post here on this issue, because so many other issues are brought up in my reply. Here is the reply:

Wow, this is certainly one of the most controversial and discussed topics on this blog. I appreciate all of the banter and the really good points brought up by everybody.

R. Waterhouse brings up fantastic points about civil liberties, and where to draw the line on other "dangerous" activities, such as promiscuous sex.

This is such a complex issue. Certainly, the most FAIR system would be NO entitlements and people paying for the consequences of their own indiscretions. There is a huge part of my internal psyche that feels it should be this way.

Then, the other part of my psyche that ends up causing me cognitive dissonance, is that as human beings, we cannot be completely selfish and we should help out the less fortunate. As pointed out by Kath, behaviors that may seem to be solely personal choice are considered by the medical community as "diseases" (e.g., alcoholism, drug addiction). The fact is, that too many people have some sort of combination of being either too "diseased", too weak, or too stupid not to get themselves in trouble with the evil pleasures in life. Thus, sometimes it behooves a government to try to willfully impose a kind of restriction, tax, or punishment for those behaviors. But that results in the predictament of the slippery slope of reaching a point of too much governmental control. I agree with Will that the banning of trans-fats and smoking in public places are probably good policies.

I think the only answer is some kind of balance. This argument can last forever. One of the classic examples is the whole "war on drugs" by the government. Why should we ban any drugs? I can make plenty of good arguments for abolishing all of the rules on drugs. Why should smoking pot, doing cocaine, doing heroin, or any other drug be illegal? The DEA and the billions of dollars spent on the war on drugs has largely been a waste. These drugs are still widely abused, and, one can argue, that making the drugs illegal has increased harm to society in terms of violence and costs of trials and imprisonments. If drugs were legal, there would be no drug lords. There would be less shootings over drug deals gone awry. The police force could be smaller. Our jails would have more room. There would be fewer trials funded by public monies to try to imprison and sentence these folks. Finally, drugs could be sold and taxed just like cigarettes, which would give the government more revenues to spend on more worthwhile causes.

Arguments can also be made in the other direction. Why is alcohol and tobacco legal, while the other drugs are not? Many more thousands of people die each year as a result of alcohol and tobacco, than all of marijuana, cocaine, heroin combined. If the government wanted to keep people safe, then they should ban alcohol and tobacco first, and then worry about the other drugs, and other things like fatty foods.

I don't have the best answer for how much governmental control is appropriate for all of these issues. In the end, or for the time being, I think that federalism (state's rights) might be best. I think it is best for the issue of gay marriage, and it may provide some semblance of a solution. Why? Because it would not require people to leave the country if their idea of appopriate governmental control was the complete opposite of their beliefs.

There could be gun-toting states and non-gun toting states. States that allow gay marriage and states that don't. States that ban drugs and states that don't. States that despise moral hazard and believe in pay for your own regarding healthcare, and states that believe health care should be a collective cost. I'm sure there would be plenty of comments about this as well from both sides (e.g., "poor people won't be able to be as mobile and move to another state" or "the country would be too fractured to run efficiently") but, really, many of the important issues are determined at a state level (e.g., death penalty, gay marriage, rules on abortion timing, etc).

Supreme Court Bans Death Penalty for Child Rape

2008-06-25T16:49:00.002-04:00

In a 5-4 decision today, the Supreme Court ruled against dealth penalty for child rape. FYI, 6 states currently allowed the death penalty for this type of crime, although it has been 44 years since anyone in the US has been executed for a non-murder offense.

I have mixed feelings about this decision, because I think child rape is one of the most horrific crimes that can be perpetrated by any human being. However, I do think the court came to the right decision. The biggest argument for employing the dealth penalty in these situations would be to deter future heinous crimes by the violent and ill individual. However, these people are so mentally warped that I do not think any type of consequence will stop them from committing this type of violent crime.

The argument to execute the offender as a punishment for the crime does not hold water. The child is definitely scarred for life (as is the family), but the death of the perpetrator does nothing to rid the victim or their families of the terrible memories of this horrid event. It only gives a quick, one-time feeling of satification due to a false sense of redemtion.

Don't get me wrong, I do not think these people have a good chance at "rehabilitation". Data from multiple studies indicate that the recividism rate for these types of crimes is near 50% and often exceeds that, depsite psychiatric counseling. Thus, these people will always be a risk to society. However, because the risk of repeat crimes is not 100%, execution is not the answer. Instead, they should be locked up for life. And, from what I hear from my trainer at the gym (don't ask), these people get their "due" when they are incarcerated. To me, that's better punishment than peacefully dying from a potassium chloride injection.

Let us know what you think.

Fat Tax- Japanese Style

2008-06-24T23:31:00.003-04:00

Japan has instituted a "fat tax". Their government is imposing heavy fines (in the millions) for private corporations and local governments that have overweight employees on their payrolls. How do they determine if someone is overweight? The measurement of the waistline must be no more than 33.5 inches for men and 35.4 inches for women. The goal of the new law is to decrease their overweight population by 10% over 4 years and 25% over 7 years.

I think this is quite an ambitious goal, especially for the country that already exhibits excellent cardiovascular health and longevity. However, I will be very interested in the results of this initiative. Will the Japanese government have its goals met?

I think it may have a positive effect. There is nothing that drives people more than adverse consequences, and because of the steep fines set as punishment, I would expect Japanese citizens to increase their vigilance towards calorie reduction and increase their calorie expenditure via exercise.

Would this work in the United States, where obesity is a much bigger problem than in Japan? I'm not sure, but if monetary fines and possibly the threat of losing employment are enforced, then it may. Certainly, the Japanese will likely have an easier time at accomplishing their goal because of their nationalized health care system, the general hardworking/no nonsense nature of their citizens, and their baseline diet, which is highly dependent on seafood.

If it does work in Japan, then I think lawmakers should consider some type of similar system here. Obesity is simply exploding in the U.S. over the past 20 years. It is crushing our health care system because of the multitude of medical problems, and thus medical expenses, associated with obesity. Here's just a short list of problems that are obesity-related: diabetes, hypertension, obstructive sleep apnea, osteoarthritis, polycystic ovarian disease, increased triglycerides, fatty liver, breast cancer (possibly), gallstones, gout, pancreatitis. The problem with most of these conditions is that many of them lead to coronary artery disease, stroke, kidney disease, and congestive heart failure.

Something must be done, and public awareness has not been a sufficient impetus thus far. Perhaps we should institute a radial "fat tax" plan akin to our Japanese comrades. Although, I better watch out, because my waistline would certainly qualify me for a fine under Japanese rules!!

Tom Friedman's Salvo

2008-06-23T22:39:00.002-04:00

I've been harping on energy policy these past few weeks. One of my favorite writers, Tom Friedman has a nice opinion piece in the NYT and seems to take the same side of my argument, only with more elegance.

Here are some excerpts:

Regarding Bush's call for more drilling:

"It’s as if our addict-in-chief is saying to us: “C’mon guys, you know you
want a little more of the good stuff. One more hit, baby. Just one more toke on
the ole oil pipe. I promise, next year, we’ll all go straight. I’ll even put a
wind turbine on my presidential library. But for now, give me one more pop from
that drill, please, baby. Just one more transfusion of that sweet offshore
crude.”

He reminds us that bill H.R. 6049 — “The Renewable Energy and Job Creation Act of 2008,” which extends for another eight years the investment tax credit for installing solar energy and extends for one year the production tax credit for producing wind power and for three years the credits for geothermal, wave energy and other renewables, is set to expire. Senate Republicans have blocked the bill six times. Why do we only give tax credits to oil companies??!?!?!?!

Regarding what Bush should say to the country:

“Oil is poisoning our climate and our geopolitics, and here is how we’re going
to break our addiction: We’re going to set a floor price of $4.50 a gallon for
gasoline and $100 a barrel for oil. And that floor price is going to trigger
massive investments in renewable energy — particularly wind, solar panels and
solar thermal. And we’re also going to go on a crash program to dramatically
increase energy efficiency, to drive conservation to a whole new level and to
build more nuclear power. And I want every Democrat and every Republican to join
me in this endeavor.”

I completely agree. Remember, the Department of Energy's own study found that drilling in ANWR would only decrease the price of oil by 75 cents per barrel. And a study by the Energy Information Administration found that drilling offshore in the Atlantic, Pacific, and Gulf of Mexico would have no significant impact on the price of oil.

Follow this link and send an electronic petition to congress to stop plans for more drilling on the coasts.

Good Week Bad Week

2008-06-23T22:12:00.003-04:00

Good week for:

1. Having adequate “support”, as an American hiker who fell and was trapped in the Alps, used her sports bra to signal others to call for help. She attached her bra to a cable near the ledge on which she was stranded, which eventually caught the eye of a worker at the base of the mountain. I can see the new Discovery Channel show, “Woman vs. Wild." That should garner some good ratings, at least among the male, 12-89 years old demographic.

2. Laughing very hard, as this week, NBC will start airing episodes of some crazy Japanese shows. My favorite has got to be this show, where if you get the question wrong, a huge spatula on a spring-loaded lever is released to hit the contestant in the groin. Check out the first episode tomorrow (6/24) at 8 pm.

Bad week for:

1. Faking it, when “Justine”, one of the partners in a same-sex male couple, dressed as a female for a courthouse marriage ceremony in Virginia. Officials several weeks later investigated the situation and determined that Justine was really named Justin. Those are some slow moving baliffs in Virginia. Did it really take them that long to realize something was amiss?

2. Calling the pot black, when it was revealed that Al Gore’s energy consumption actually rose 10% in 2007, despite installation of solar panels and more efficient light bulbs. The kicker is that Gore’s MONTHLY energy consumption is 50% more than the average ANNUAL consumption of Americans. Gore was already called out for his hypocrisy about 1 year ago, when it was determined that his electric bill was over $16,000 per month. What exactly is he doing in that house? He needs to be setting a better example, because these stories are completely embarassing for his whole mission.

3. Being constipated, as a 6 foot python slithered through the sewer pipes and appeared in the toilet of a man’s highrise apartment in Australia. At least his pipes were cleaned out...no need to call Roto-rooter.

The Russert Rainbow

2008-06-19T00:53:00.004-04:00

Just finished watching the replay of the memorial service held at the Kennedy Center today for Tim Russert. His son Luke gave a great speech. He has inherited his father's oratory skills.

Bruce Springsteen joined the all-star group via satellite from Europe and told a story about Tim and then played a beautiful version of "Thunder Road".

That was the end of the 90 minute memorial, and at the close, they played "Somewhere Over the Rainbow" on the PA system. As the attendees left the Kennedy Center, they walked out to see a majestic double rainbow in the sky above them. Watch this video from the 7 minute 30 second mark to see more about this. It was quite a poignant image. Watch the whole video to see highlights of the eulogies from the ceremony.

What a year for Beantown

2008-06-18T00:05:00.004-04:00

The Boston Celtics clobbered the LA Lakers tonight in the 6th game of the NBA finals to win the championship. It has been an absolutely phenomenal year for Boston sports franchises. The Red Sox won the 2007 World Series in a 4 game sweep over the Rockies. The Patriots dominated the NFL and were within a fingernail's length of an unprescendented 19-0 season, only to lose the Super Bowl on the final drive against the NY Giants.

Finally, the Celtics, led by their big 3 (Garnett, Allen, Pierce) dominated the NBA and defeated their old rivals from the 80s, the LA Lakers.

I acknowledge that the game was a blow-out tonight, but I thought the post-game celebration by the crowd and players was a little subdued. Maybe it's just relative, because I was just watching game 7 of the 1984 finals between Boston and LA on the NBA Network yesterday, and the mayhem that ensued at the end of the game was unbelievable (forward to about 2 min 15 seconds of this video to see the wild celebration. Watch Larry Bird run for his life towards the tunnel to avoid getting completely swamped by the flood of fans on the court).

OK, so maybe there is better crowd control these days, but it just sure seemed like the fans knew how to have a super celebration back then. Maybe it was those short shorts and wild hairdos that stirred them into a frenzy.

Don and Timmy

2008-06-17T20:52:00.007-04:00

I listened to the Imus in the Morning program on Monday morning. Imus was respectful, and said some nice things about Tim Russert in the first 5 minutes of the show, but his tone was frankly not as somber as I would have expected for someone he had on the show greater than 15o times over the past 10+ years. Here's the link to the podcast (click on link to show from 6/16 in the playbox on the right of the page).

The best part of the show were the guests that came on, such as Mike Barnicle and James Carville, Mary Matalin, Joe Leiberman, and Howard Kurtz. The guests were much more emotional and told much more touching stories about Tim (that made me cry, again) than anyone from the Imus crew. Charles, who used to have Thanksgiving dinner with the Russerts, said about 10 words about Russert (something to the effect of "it's surreal...it doesn't seem possible"). Bernie (the producer of the show), said some brief nice words about how Tim would ask him how his father was doing.

Within 5 minutes of the start of the show, Imus and Warner Wolf were joking about the NBA Finals and PGA Championship. Throughout the rest of the show, in between interviews, they were having their usual small talk and were telling jokes. Imus was also very concerned about getting to listen to the playoff between Tiger Woods and Rocco Mediate on satellite radio while in the car as he drove to the airport later that day.

I don't know, maybe I was expecting too much of Imus. Maybe I'm a big sap by being so sad about someone that I loved watching and listening to so much, compared to someone that Imus used to talk to at least every month.

Regarding the whole "controversy" surrounding his firing, Imus said that there was never any question that he would have Russert back on the show, despite what many people were saying. Later in the show, he did say they had a "complicated relationship", but there was "no one else to put on the show." Imus did say that of the 150+ plus times on the show, he was never "awful."
If you want to hear true sincerity and respect for The Man, listen to the interviews with Barnicle (25.5 minutes in) and Carville (79 minutes in).

I was initially a little upset about Russert's lack of public support for Imus after the scandal. However, Carville, during his interview, stated repeatedly how much Russert loved Imus and the whole team and that he called Carville repeatedly with ideas to help out Imus. It is clear to me that Russert was given a gag order by NBC and that he never diminished his loyalty for his friend, Don Imus. I should have never doubted him. I'm sorry Tim.

Same-Sex Marriage

2008-06-16T22:51:00.006-04:00

Warning: This is a controversial topic.

I got an email today from some organization urging me to help "Stop Same-Sex Marriage in California". The email was asking for money to fight this battle, and stated:

We need resources to fight back, to stand up for God's own truth, for
common sense, for marriage as the union of husband and wife, and for the next
generation's right to know and be known by their own mother and father.

Ok, here is my quick and simple stance on this.

1. I think the fact that same-sex couples are allowed to get legally married does not make one single iota of difference to any heterosexual couple in the world. The strength of their relationship, the validity of their marriage is not impacted whatsoever by homosexuals being able to share the same rights.

2. People should spend more time worrying about fixing their own relationships rather than telling other people who to love and how to love them.

3. Just because same-sex marriages are recognized by the State of California, and maybe by all 50 states some day, does not mean any religious organization has to recognize it.

4. People are worried about the children of these same-sex couples. Well, study after study has shown that children of same-sex couples do just as well as any other children in terms of self-esteem, gender identity or emotional health.

5. I think children of a loving same-sex couple may be more lucky than children born to a heterosexual couple but raised by a single parent with the other parent uninvolved in their care. I was happy to see Obama urging black fathers to become more involved in raising their children. This is what people should be upset about....fathers who abandon their children.

6. Do you think homosexuals are purposely choosing to be "different" and to rebel against societal norms? I don't think so. I don't think they can help it. As evidence, watch these videos from 60 Minutes that explores the origins of homosexuality. You will think twice about criticizing homosexuals for their "choice" (note the video of the 3 year old boy who would rather play with Barbies than toy cars/trucks).

7. Do people think keeping a ban on gay marriage is going to prevent the already thousands to millions of same-sex couples from having romantic relationships? No way.

Energy (continued)

2008-06-15T22:56:00.003-04:00

I have to get my mind off of Tim Russert. So, let me come back to a very lively topic that garnered 11 comments to my recent post.

I have posted the evidence that drilling in ANWR will not yield oil for 10 years and will only lower the cost of oil by a few dollars per barrel. I think it would be foolish in the year 2008, to start a multi-billion dollar project in the the very north of pristine Alaska to squeeze out a relatively small amount of oil compared to our overall consumption.

Instead, if the money spent to on the ANWR project went to tax credits to privately-owned companies that focus on non-fossil fuel energy sources, I think it would do a lot more for the overall energy picture. Or, at least shift over the $10 billion in government (tax-payer) subsidies from oil companies to alternative energy companies. It is absolutely ludicrous that these companies are still getting all these subsidies while making record profits at our expense.

I think it it foolish to try to increase the extraction and consumption of a natural resource that will eventually be depleted, when instead we can focus efforts on energy sources that are LIMITLESS (solar, wind, nuclear), clean, and easily attainable. It seems like such an easy choice. Plus, we can also work on decreasing consumption.

This is not a far-off pipe dream. GM is coming out with it's plug-in hybrid that can go 40 miles without using any gas, and can get 640 miles on only 12 gallons of gas. Tesla motors is coming out with an electric sports car that is 100% electric, goes 0-60 in 3.9 seconds, and gets an "equivalent" of 135 mpg.

What is not cool about that type of technology? Doesn't that feel better than burning oil? It is like non-fat ice cream...guilt free. You still can have your sexy fast car and not pollute the earth. And, remember, drivers of fuel-efficient cars are more likely to pick up women.

"Our Issues This Sunday"

2008-06-15T18:59:00.007-04:00

Tim Russert started every episode of MTP with those 4 words. In his exhuberant tone, he would recite the issues he planned to discuss during the current week's episode, as the ultra-dramatic music blared in the background.

Today, the Moderator's chair was empty. Instead, Tom Brokaw chaired a special episode of MTP along with some of the regular guests and close friends of Tim. I just finished watching the taped version (missed it this morning because of work). It was tremendous. Please watch it here if you haven't done so. NBC will have to find a new host for MTP, but it will be nearly impossible to fill the big shoes of Mr. Russert.

I don't think I've ever been more sad about any famous person's death. I think Russert was one of the most influential persons in the United States. Think about it...he had anyone who was anyone on his show every week. He had every major candidate for President in the past 17 years on his show. He made the candidates better, because they truly had to think out the issues. They weren't going to pull a fast one over on Tim. He set the standard for Sunday morning shows. He brought the truth to the masses watching at home.

Then, there was all of the people he mentored at NBC. From what I have heard from them in their interviews, he seemed to be an amazing mentor and teacher. Finally, he has touched millions of people with his books "Big Russ and Me" and "Wisdom of Our Fathers", and through his writings he helped strengthen relationships between fathers and sons across the nation.

At the end of the special episode today, they closed with a video montage set to Bruce Springsteen's "Thunder Road". It is a tearjerker. The Boss dedicated the song to Tim at his show last night in Europe.

Russert and Father's Day

2008-06-15T08:42:00.002-04:00

Tim Russert was NBC Washington Bureau Chief and moderator of Meet the Press, but he is also known for his books about fathers. Here is a touching tribute by Chuck Todd from NBC about how Tim was always concerned about his colleagues and their relationships with their families.

Imus and Russert

2008-06-14T12:09:00.004-04:00

As I said in an earlier post, I will be listening to the Imus in the Morning show with gusto on Monday, to see what Don Imus says about the death of Tim Russert.

An interesting post on "Imustruth.com", which seems to indicate that Russert did go to bat for Imus during the whole controversy, but was handcuffed by NBC execs on displaying his support for Imus publically. I think that was the case...they were just too good of friends for Russert to turn his back on him. Moreover, Russert was too good of a guy. However, Russert couldn't publically support Imus the way Mike and the Mad Dog or others did after the firing because of his position as the Washington Bureau Chief for NBC News (you recall that Imus in the Morning was simulcast on MSNBC). The evidence of this is indirect...but Imus has had Russert appear as a guest on his show several times since the incident, while Imus has shunned others who abandoned him. Thus, I think Russert did really try to help Don Imus out and prevent his outright dismissal from MSNBC.

Imustruth.com has posted podcasts of several Imus-Russert interviews...listen when you have a chance.

Also, the "Opinionator", Chris Suellentrop of the NYT has posted a nice collection of comments from the Blogosphere regarding Mr. Russert.

Russert Tributes

2008-06-14T08:25:00.004-04:00

Here are some heartwarming and touching tributes to Tim Russert.

Tom Brokaw and then Tim talking about his start at Meet the Press

The opening of the Dateline special last night

Tributes from politicians around the country

Pat Buchanan

James Carville

Tim gives advice to his son

Watching all these videos clips of him, it reinforced to me why I love him so much...he was so tenacious and thorough when interviewing people, but he always was smiling and had a twinkle in his eye while doing it.

I will be listening Monday morning to hear what Don Imus says about his long-time friend (you may recall that their relationship was strained after the firing of Don from CBS radio and MSNBC).

More on Russert

2008-06-13T22:33:00.002-04:00

I've watched 5 consecutive hours of MSNBC and now NBC coverage of Tim Russert. I can't stop watching...he was such an amazing man. He was known as one of the most honest and rigorous interviewers of politicians, writers, and pundits. He had such a thirst for knowledge and for seeking the truth. But, it is the personal side of Tim that is really so amazing. He was such a humble man, who cared deeply for others, for spending time with his family, for having meaningful interpersonal contacts. It is quite poetic that he died at the start of Father's Day weekend, as he mentions both his father and son in almost every interview he has given. He loved the city of Buffalo, he loved the Roman Catholic Church, he loved the common man, he loved politics, and most of all, he just loved life.

I am still in absolute shock about this...

Tim Russert 1950-2008

2008-06-13T18:26:00.004-04:00

I am shocked and deeply saddened about the tragic and sudden passing of Tim Russert, NBC News Washington Bureau Chief, host of the extremely popular Sunday morning show "Meet the Press", and frequent guest on MSNBC and the "Today Show". He collapsed and died from a massive heart attack (proven by autopsy) while on the set of NBC News this afternoon, despite the best efforts of the paramedics to revive him.

I feel like I know Tim Russert personally. I have taped and watched "Meet the Press" every Sunday for the past few years, and watched it online when it wasn't taped. I thoroughly enjoyed his interviewing style, holding his guests responsible for the comments they had often made in the past, which often contradicted their current stances. He was very fair and nonpartisan. He grilled conservatives, liberals, republicans and democrats with equal vigor. He was so enthusiastic in his coverage of politics. His face was akin to a bulldog, but he appeared to have the most charming and warm personality. He was keenly intelligent, but also knew how to smile and laugh with his guests. From the testimonials that are pouring all over the internet and television right now, he was beloved by all that new him. He was always repectful, kind and caring. Before and after the cameras were taping, he would ask the guests about their personal lives and he would ask about their family.

Tim Russert was only 58 years old. It is ironic that he has died on Father's Day weekend, as he is also famous for writing stories about fathers, in his book "Big Russ and Me". I don't know what to say. He was the man, the stalwart and Godfather of political coverage.

Tim Russert was also a frequent guest on the Imus in the Morning show. Here is a funny compilation clip of Tim actually sitting in the studio and ripping on Imus from the mid-1990s.

I will miss Tim Russert greatly. The United States of America will miss Tim Russert tremendously.

Drilling is not the answer!!

2008-06-12T08:38:00.003-04:00

I was in my morning routine today (watching CNBC to get a handle on the pre-market futures while I get ready for work) and Doug MacIntyre, Senior Market Analyst for the Energy Information Administration came on to discuss the "oil crisis".

Doug talks about the "benefits" of drilling in ANWR (Alaska), at around 4 min 30 seconds into this video clip. He quotes data from his most recent analysis for a report that he has provided to the US Senate. What his team found is that it will take 10+ years to get the oil from ANWR into our system, and that at the most, it will only reduce the price of oil by a few dollars per barrel. Please watch the video (you can forward it to that spot).

Wow, drilling in Alaska just sounds like such a great solution to our energy problems....NOT!!!!!!!

OK, we haven't had a poll in a while...new poll....should we drill for oil in ANWR? (vote to the right of this post).

Disgusting Medical Practices

2008-06-10T23:32:00.005-04:00

Police in Italy have arrested 13 doctors from Milan for performing needless medical surgeries. The doctors collected some $3.8 million for performing these surgeries. What's worse, is that wiretaps placed reveal that the motives for the surgeries were most likely for monetary reasons.

I hope this doesn't surprise you. And, I hope that you are not comforted by the fact that this occurred in Italy and not the U.S. In my young medical career, I have already seen too many examples of doctors performing unnecessary tests and procedures, or trying to extend the life of patient whose outcome is futile. The financial incentive is too corrupting (most tests, procedures, longer hospital stays means more billing and more money in the pockets of physicians). Also, there is a "secret mafia" of consultants/specialists who refer patients to each other to increase their revenues. Finally, don't forget about all of the incentives placed in front of doctors by pharmaceutical companies. While the rules have become stricter, you can imagine that there are still underlying pressures and enticements. This is one of the reasons why so many people are taking over 20 medications.

What does this mean for you if you are a patient?

1. The next time your doctor orders a test, ask him why it is necessary and how he/she will act on the information. There are so many tests that are ordered that do not change your medical management whatsoever.

2. The next time you doctor orders a radiographic test, again, ask why, and what the alternatives are to the test. The reason for extra caution here (as opposed to a blood or urine test) is that you should not be exposed to extra radiation if you do not need it (FYI, a standard CAT scan delivers more than 200x radiation than that of an X-ray). Studies have shown that the radiation increases your risk for cancer.

3. If a surgeon recommends an operation for a non-emergent condition such as chronic back pain(not for a ruptured appendix or cholecystitis, or something emergent and obvious), get a 2nd opinion. Remember about the financial incentive to operate.

4. Ask your doctor if all of the medications that you are taking are needed. Sometimes medications are continued for a previously indicated condition, but your change in health status may no longer require it.

5. Fill out a living will and make sure your loved ones have one in place. The default in the hospital is to do everything. Couple that with the "God Complex" that many physicians have, and before you know it, there will be tubes going into every orifice in the body, and all kinds of aggressive and largely uncomfortable procedures that will follow when illness strikes. Do this living will when you are feeling healthy and are of clear mind. Try to remember that death is not optional, and try to balance out with extending your life on Earth with your QUALITY of life.

6. Be skeptical!! This is not the 1950s when everybody used to take what their primary doctor said as Gospel. There are a lot of bad doctors out there who barely made it through med school or barely passed the boards (many are not even board certified, but are still practicing medicine). Look up your conditions on the internet. Become educated, and have an active part in your health care decision making. Remember that doctors are busy and may miss things. But, I still think that you are more likely to get more unnecessary care than lack of vital care, given the ease with which tests in this country can be ordered.

I've said this in the past, but I think there are way too many financial incentives in the health care system. Everybody is trying to make money: doctors, hospitals, insurance companies, and pharmaceutical companies. With all of the green to be made, patient's needs and desires are often last on the list of priorities.

Good News, Bad News

2008-06-10T23:17:00.002-04:00

Ever wondered what you should do with your old clunky television or computer? Well, now there's a solution. Best Buy has started a recycling program for your old electronic devices. That's great....but the bad news? The program is only operational in Baltimore, San Francisco, and the state of Minnesota.

Hopefully they will expand this program soon. Does anyone know of other options for getting rid of old electronics, especially like here in the Northeast?

More on Fuel

2008-06-10T20:32:00.004-04:00

A reader of the blog (Don) has been active in the comments section lately, and I certainly welcome his insight and arguments. He is quite intelligent and understands free markets.

I agree with most of what he said, but I do have two slight differences of opinion:

1. While he concurs that we should have more alternative fuel research, he states that government tax dollars (our money) should not be spent on it and that the free markets are the best equipped to handle it.

Well, I agree, that in the UNITED STATES, the free markets are the best to handle it (and apparently the only way it will get handled), because our recent PRESIDENTS, ADMINISTRATIONS, and CONGRESS as well, on both sides of the political spectrum, are too screwed up to do anything about it. In other countries (e.g., European countries), governments have no problems implementing alternative energy sources such as nuclear, wind and solar power. (France and Germany get most of their energy from alternative energy sources).

I personally would not mind if some of our tax dollars went into alternative energy research/implementation. Why? First, I would MUCH rather have our tax dollars go to this endeavor rather than the TRILLIONS that are going into the Iraq War. Second, it would be one of the greatest things our government could do to improve national security. Why should we still be paying all this money to corrupt OPEC countries who sponsor terrorism? They will be using our oil money for improving their weapons. Third, the high price of fuel is essentially a "hidden tax", isn't it? EVERYTHING is more expensive....driving, flying, FOOD. It is crippling the country.

So, while I welcomed high prices in oil now to provide the private industry with the free market impetus to bring on alternative energy, if our blundering and inept government had done something about this a long time ago (back in the 70s, 80s, 90s), we would not be in this position today. I want the pain now so that the future generations don't end up living in the US when oil costs $300 per barrel.

2. Don also argues that we could be drilling in Alaska for oil. This is NOT the solution!! There are only about 4 months worth of oil up there. Then we would be done and would be back at square one again! We need long-term solutions and thus, should not destroy peaceful Alaska for a 4-month band-aid.

Good Week Bad Week

2008-06-09T21:04:00.002-04:00

Good week for:

1. "Poetic justice", as 28 teenagers who broke into Robert Frost's old house in Vermont, had a keg party, and caused over $10,000 in damage were sentenced to take a class in poetry.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24935777/

It reminds me of sheriff Joe Arapio who makes his prisoners at his Arizona jail wear pink underwear, and only allows them to watch the weather channel so they can see how hot it will be working outside the next day.

http://www.snopes.com/politics/crime/arpaio.asp

2. Sowing the fields, as a 17-pound Densuke black watermelon was sold at an auction in Japan for $6,000. While you can occasionally get a dud watermelon at the grocery store (not pink/red enough, not juicy enough), there are still plenty of delicious watermelons that I have had from local grocery store for about $3.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24997464/

By the way, did you know that the record for watermelon seed-spitting is 68 feet 9 inches!!

http://www.slashfood.com/2008/05/19/play-with-your-food-have-a-watermelon-seed-spitting-contest/

Bad week for:

1. Being "#1" in the world, as the dominant Roger Federer, was demolished by the Spainiard Rafael Nadal in straight sets, 6-1, 6-3, 6-0. It was Nadal's fourth straight French Open title. I have seen Federer in action several times, including live at the US Open, and he is like a machine. He has won 12 grand slam titles (3 Australian Open, 5 Wimbeldon, 4 US Open), but has NEVER won the French. It seems that the clay court is like his kryptonite. Federer has now lost 3 straight French Open finals to Nadal. I may be coming down too hard on Federer, and it just may be that Nadal is SO GOOD on clay, and that is the difference.

My question to you all is, how can someone be so good at playing tennis on one surface, but become so beatable on another suface like clay?

http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/tennis/french08/columns/story?columnist=ford_bonnie_d&id=3432371

2. Buying early, as Apple has announced that the new 3G iPhone will not only be faster, have more memory, and possess more features but will be MUCH cheaper than the initial iPhones. The new iPhone will sell for $199 (the initial iPhone sold for about $600 last year). Suprisingly, Apple's stock was lower on the news.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/09/technology/applekeynote.fortune/index.htm?cnn=yes

Market update: we have broken support on many of the major averages including the DJIA and the S&P 500. The NASDAQ has been strong the past few months, but is also on the verge of breaking horizontal support. Be careful out there...we could be headed for a test of the March 17th lows.

3. Driving "rapido", as truckers in Spain, Portugal and France blocked highways in protest of high fuel costs.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080609/ts_afp/europeinflationprotestenergytransport

Again, efficient markets are working properly, as a new report indicates that 66% of Americans said they are cutting back on the amount of driving they do and 71% indicated that they are considering buying a more fuel-efficient vehicle. Car manufacturers will step up their production of more fuel-efficient vehicles, which will then be on the road for years to come, even if gas/fuel/oil prices fall in the next few years. Plus, the new technology developed to maximize fuel economy from engines will remain, setting new standards that will likely persist for years to come. Overall, there will be decreased consumption of fossil fuels, and people will realize they don't need to have gas-guzzling SUVs, especially in non-snowy areas (I still don't understand the popularity of SUVs and trucks in Florida and Texas).

http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/09/news/economy/poll/index.htm?cnn=yes

Eating Bugs

2008-06-07T23:33:00.002-04:00

One of the lead stories on MSN.com today was a link to piece on why we should eat insects. It seems that eating bugs would go a long way to help solving the world food shortage. Sound totally disgusting? In 113 countries, eating bugs, scientifically known as "entomophagy", is common practice. In Mexico, some 1500 different species of bugs are served at restaurants, especially high-end restaurants.

http://www.sciencenews.org/view/feature/id/32443/title/Insects_%28the_original_white_meat%29

Bugs, pound for pound, are more nutritious than meat, fish, and poultry. They contain a high proportion of protein and a fair amount of minerals. Beside the fact that insects are a good nutritional source, raising insects is far cheaper and more efficient to feed compared to feeding pigs and cattle (food conversion efficiency is 20 times better than that of beef).

It does seem quite gross to me, although I have tried fried grasshoppers once, and they were actually quite tasty. And, as this article points out, bugs may seem unpleasant because of the exoskeleton, appendages, and weird eyes, but humans, in general, have no problem eating crustaceans, which have these same characteristics and are thus the ocean-equivalent of insects. And, crustaceans eat trash and dead things from the bottom of the sea, while most insects feed on leaves and plants.

Convinced yet? Ok, maybe not yet. But, please watch this video clip from one of my favorite shows, Man vs. Wild. It's a two minute clip, but you must watch to the 2nd half of this clip where the crazy Bear Grylls eats a gigantic rhino beetle larva (he eats two in a row...watch him eat the 2nd, larger one).

http://youtube.com/watch?v=zu3FlOksBjY

Good Week, Bad Week

2008-06-03T21:25:00.003-04:00

Good week for:

1. Picking up girls with a hybrid, as a recent study found that 9 out of 10 women would rather talk to man who drives a fuel-efficient vehicle rather than a sports car. The other 10% of women still prefer aggressive stick-shifting.

http://green.yahoo.com/blog/ecogeek/539/ecogeeks-get-all-the-girls.html

2. Enophiles, as researchers found, yet again, the benefits of red wine towards reducing the typical age-related decline in cardiac function (in mice). Lucky mice...when will they start human trials of red wine? I guess that wouldn't really work...no one would want to be in the placebo group.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24956934/

3. The Fonz, as this article on the history of "thumbs up" credits Fonzie with reinvigorating the gesture. As you might know, in the days of the Roman Empire and gladiator fights, the crowd would give a thumbs up or thumbs down to indicate whether the gladiator would live or die. Contrary to popular belief, a thumbs up meant the gladiator was to die, a sign that your to get "outa here". Concealed thumb (thumbs down) meant the gladiator was to live. Interestingly, in Iran and Greece, the thumbs up is derogatory sign. Good to know....

http://news.yahoo.com/s/livescience/20080522/sc_livescience/fromkennedytoclintonwhyeveryoneisthumbsup

Bad week for:

1. Stoners and pot-heads, as new research from Australia reveals that long-term pot smoking shrinks two important areas of the brain, the hippocampus and the amygdala. This explains a lot, about me, I mean, Australians.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080602/lf_nm_life/marijuana_brain_dc;_ylt=AojvvF4LZMxPqrFT5FvC2boDW7oF

2. Grocery bills, as a homeless woman was secretly living in the closet of an unsuspecting Japanese man for months. Apparently she hid a mattress in his closet, and would sneak out, shower, and eat his food when he wasn't home. He finally caught her by installing security cameras. I guess it's better than having your house infested with mice.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080530/ap_on_re_as/japan_closet_woman;_ylt=AuDB3HPerFPfjXbXy8vBWFoDW7oF

3. Having diarrhea in space, as the only toilet on board the space station has malfunctioned. Until a new pump is brought up to them, the astronauts will have to use plastic bags to contain their waste. Hope the bags don't break!

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080530/od_afp/japancrimeoffbeat;_ylt=AkCu2rLl.P6mW1Cd1EopsMYDW7oF

The Silver Lining

2008-05-29T21:22:00.005-04:00

OK, it's been all over the news, and I'm sure it's been hurting your wallet, pocketbook, purse, or European carry-all. Oil prices reached an all-time high this week at > $132 per barrel, and gas prices have been higher than $4 per gallon for the past 2 weeks. Everybody is moaning and groaning.

However, my thoughts at this time are "no pain, no gain". We need to feel the pinch of high oil prices. We need to feel more than a pinch, we need a good punch, a good blow, a good beatdown. Why? Because it is the only way to provide enough impetus to get us moving on alternative energy sources. And, finally, finally, it appears that people are decreasing consumption in response to these high prices. Yes, for the first time since 1979, driving in the U.S. decreased on a monthly basis (by 4.3%). It's classic supply/demand economics.

http://www.nationalpost.com/story.html?id=535627

I know there are both liberal and conservative readers of this blog. All the liberals are probably largely supportive of investment and implementation of alternative energy sources (wind, solar, hydrogen fuel cell cars). You conservatives out there, you may be rolling your eyes right now.

But, conservatives should embrace the shift away from fossil fuels just as much as liberals. Why?

1. Isn't this free market capitalism at its best? When the cost of one good or service becomes too high, other more efficient and less expensive goods become more attractive.

2. The majority of money that we are spending on oil is going straight to terrorist countries. Why do we want to fund our enemies?

3. Alternative energy with provide a host of new jobs for young scientists and businessmen, and will promote and necessitate advances in technology.

4. What is so wrong with breathing cleaner air? Recent studies have shown that smog actually increases the risk for premature death.

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5iPpWVv6rNMHg0jlflIVcrrJzEHew

5. Why are you so resistant to change? What is it about oil that won't let you give it up? Did people complain when the automobile replaced the primary method of transportation (horse and buggy) back in the early 1900s? Did people complain about the arrival of airplanes to replace train and boat travel? Technology is great. If we can get around and power our homes and buildings by cleaner and more efficient means, why not?

I defy you to provide a compelling argument to stop the shift to more solar, nuclear, wind power. Don't bet against Boone Pickens!!!

Teeth and Economics

2008-05-27T21:03:00.002-04:00

The guys over at the Freakonomics blog on the NYT website have merged two of my favorite topics...teeth AND economics. FYI, Freakonomics is one of my favorite books of all-time. If you haven't read it, I highly suggest it, especially if you are into numbers and social phenomena.

Anyway, back to the teeth and economics piece. The piece was partially inspired by a new study that found that women grew up drinking fluoridated water earned 4% more than women who didn't. This effect remained after controlling for many patient-level and county-level factors. This study continues the "beauty premium" paradigm that reveals that ugly people earn less than average incomes, while beautiful people earn more than the average (the ugliness “penalty” for men was -9 percent while the beauty premium was +5 percent. For women, the ugliness penalty was -6 percent while the beauty premium was +4 percent).

http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/05/26/the-economics-of-teeth-and-other-beauty-premiums/

Suprising data? Not at all. A nice smile can get you places, and it makes sense that the earnings were higher for the group with nicer teeth. Well, we have to PRESUME that the flouride as a child resulted in nicer teeth as an adult. I would have preferred to see a study of smiles that were actually graded or scored by humans and then had the niceness of the teeth correlated with wages.

Even more interesting was a link embedded within the first part of the Freakonomics post that discussed the value of teeth cleaning. The article again is hinged upon a recent scientific publication. This study was a recent meta-analysis that demonstrated that teeth cleaning (scaling and polishing) did not necessarily improve periodontal health. However, the studies were of questionable quality. Second, I'm not a dentist, but I would think that a twice-yearly would not improve the incidence rate of gingivitis as much as DAILY oral care via flossing, brushing, and mouthwash would. Instead, professional dental cleanings remove tartar, which is much more difficult to manage at home alone.

http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/03/11/is-tooth-cleaning-a-scam/

Finally, while Mr. Ayres seems to abhor dental cleanings and equates them with pain and torture, I find them completely the opposite. In fact, my sentiments completely concur with the comment posted below the article by a man named Jim, in which he states the following:

I enjoy having my teeth cleaned. I think it is like a massage in my mouth. If I had the cash to spend on luxuries, I’d go every month.

I completely agree with you Jim!!

Crazy Stories

2008-05-20T20:07:00.003-04:00

I came across some far-out stories:

1. Astronauts at the International Space Station will soon get their drinking water from some weird sources. Engineers have devised a system that will purify urine and capture moisture from evaporated sweat and laundry water. This sounds disgusting but it does make sound physiologic sense. I've always said that urine is "liquid gold", and now it will only become more valuable!

http://news.yahoo.com/s/usatoday/20080515/tc_usatoday/ontapinspaceurinewillnotgotowaste

2. A restaurant in NYC is selling a hamburger for $175. I do not understand this. There is no way it can taste that good. I also feel that high-priced wines at restaurants are somewhat ridiculous. After the price gets above about $50 per bottle, it is very difficult to discern any difference in taste and quality of the wine. Do you agree?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080520/od_nm/hamburger_dc;_ylt=ArV9uqkErJDwcp7Px8H.WlIDW7oF

3. An appeals court in D.C. has ruled that paper money is discriminatory against blind people. I've never thought about this, but it is true that it is impossible for the blind to pick out between different demoninations of paper money.

A quote from the article:

...People in their 30s and 40s should know that, when they get older, "they will be able to identify their $1 bills from their fives, tens and twenties," said Pomerantz, of the Council of the Blind.

No worries, our dollar is becoming so weak, that the $5 bill will soon only be worth $1!

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080520/ap_on_go_ot/blind_money;_ylt=Aq.eGd7FmRsMhteE2pgTBKkDW7oF

4. "Catch me if you can"...a pilot and stewardess were caught naked in the woods in Pennsylvania. Apparently, neighbors saw the naked man and woman, called the authorities, and a helicopter with heat-seekers was called in to locate them. Don't you think that is a little extreme? Calling in "Blue Thunder" to capture 2 horny 20-year olds? I'm sure taxpayer money could be better spent.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080520/ap_on_fe_st/odd_naked_pilot;_ylt=Ah9dspxOsmP6KkdyHXTaQv4DW7oF

5. Donkey behind bars- get this...in Mexico, a donkey has been jailed for biting and kicking 2 men. It was put in a regular human prison. That would be a tough cell-mate. Maybe if U.S. authorities arrested aggressive and dangerous animals and put them in jail here, it would serve as a good crime deterrent.

Money quote from the article:

"Around here, if someone commits a crime they are jailed," Gomez said — "no
matter who they are."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080520/ap_on_fe_st/odd_mexico_jailed_burro;_ylt=AuVQla7He_hExw6ufuUetwgDW7oF

Good Week, Bad Week (May 19th Edition)

2008-05-19T21:16:00.008-04:00

It's a good week for:

1. Overweight, videogame-playing couch potatoes, as Nintendo has come out with a new game for the Wii, called the Wii Fit. A medical study had demonstrated that playing games on the regular Wii burned more calories than typical video games (but not as much as actually playing the sport). We'll see how many calories can be burned using the Wii Fit.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/HEALTH/diet.fitness/05/16/wii.fit/index.html

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/6376637.stm

2. Flying kites, as a marked increase in interest in wind power has investors in a frenzy. Boone Pickens, an old-time oil investor, just placed an order for 600 wind turbines from G.E. The U.S. Energy Department said wind power could provide 20 percent of U.S. electricity by 2030. This is great news, as we need to have some form of reasonable competition against generation of electricity from fossil fuels in these days of record high oil prices (most electricity in U.S. comes from burning of coal and natural gas). Plus, wind is one of the cleanest forms of energy production. Don't believe the hype? Stocks are good are predicting the future. Just look at the recent moves in the price of some of the wind stocks. Boolah!!

http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/05/19/pickens.qa/index.html

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/usa_wind_dc;_ylt=AmAp9AZAp.skj0Z7B4W9zn8DW7oF

It's a bad week for:

1. Watching a track meet, as photographer Ryan McGeeney was speared in the leg by a javelin, as he was watching the discus throw. Fortunately, he states it didn't hurt very much and he was able to use his camera to snap a photo so that the whole world could see his impaling.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/more/05/19/photog.javelin.ap/index.html?cnn=yes

2. Dairy farmers, as a tractor trailer carrying 14 tons of Oreos overturned and spilled them all over the roadway. Rumor has it that residents living near the spill rapidly bought up 300 gallons of milk and starting dunking and eating the oreos before they were crushed and crumbled by the oncoming traffic.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080519/ap_on_fe_st/odd_cookie_spill;_ylt=Asurff0Ot75_32FHq5FWz8kDW7oF

It reminds me of one of my favorite Seinfeld episodes, the "Muffin Top" episode. In this episode, Elaine's desire to only eat muffin tops causes one of the local bakeries to sell only the muffin tops. Unfortunately, this results in a huge dilemma...what to do with the bottoms of the muffins. Elaine calls in "The Cleaner" (AKA Newman) to take care of the situation. Check out this 1 minute clip to see how "The Cleaner" handles the sticky situation.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=qRTBVPgHM3Y

3. Stepping in elephant dung, as politicians in Romania are resorting to weird tactics, such as parading around an elephant downtown, in an effort woo potential voters. I'm sure that Romanians are glad that their candidates have nicknames like "elephant" rather than nicknames like wolverine, skunk, and alligator.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080519/od_nm/elections_dc;_ylt=Al1hKYfaglh00VEMy2XARHms0NUE

Two more very funny videos

2008-05-17T08:47:00.002-04:00

Here are two more must see videos. I'm sure many of you have already seen the video of Bill O'Reilly from 20 years ago that was recently unearthed. Think you are having a bad day? Watch his tirade in his pre-Fox News days while on the set of "Inside Edition"...

http://youtube.com/watch?v=2tJjNVVwRCY

And, check out this very young kid (can't be much older than 2 years old...right?) give a rousing performance of "Hey Jude"...

http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/popup/?cl=7848474

Funny Videos

2008-05-15T23:25:00.002-04:00

Two funny videos to lighten up your day:

1. A short video on George Bush and his use of "The Google" on the "Internets". It makes me laugh every time I hear it.

http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/politics/2008/05/14/moos.googler.in.chief.cnn

2. A clip from Jon Stewart with some great soundbites of West Virginians honestly telling the media why they didn't vote for Obama.

http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=168561&title=indecision-2008-west-virginia

Good week, bad week (May 12th edition)

2008-05-12T22:10:00.003-04:00

Good week for:

1. Old rock stars and arachniphobes, as a University of East Carolina biologist discovered a new species of spider and named it after his favorite musical artist, Neil Young (Myrmekiaphila neilyoungi). Oh those crazy scientists! No word yet on how Neil Young feels about his glorious honor.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080511/lf_nm_life/spider_young_dc;_ylt=AtINt1O9SrnaX.GCX5EdYw8DW7oF

2. Gangsta rapper wanna-be kids, as the state senate in Louisiana has voted AGAINST droopy-pants. I hate the look, but have to admit that this shouldn't be regulated by state (or federal governments).

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5ijcUNoCcTOeRZA0EYOlt4Hx5iGvgD907239G0

3. Dogs' keen sense of smell, as a dog that ran away a pit-stop some 77 miles from the owners home, has somehow found his way back home a week later. I have to admit, I don't think many humans would be able to find their way home if dropped off somewhere that was 77 miles from home.

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5iunnoPTZZndOqWsA_ekJJIFAp-RgD904I3000

Bad week for:

1. Imitating Seigfried and Roy, as a Romanian man was arrested for rearing a lion in his backyard. It reminds me of one of the amazing wildlife videos I have ever seen. I have posted the link of the video from youtube, which follows the battle between a poor little baby buffalo vs. a pride of lions, and then a herd of buffalo vs. a pride of lions. It's 8 minutes, but take a break from your crazy day and watch it...it is memorable.

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5ii98E9xawRrO56R-sRt8WUvheWkQD90398BG0

http://youtube.com/watch?v=LU8DDYz68kM

2. Being an "aged" presidential candidate, as John McCain's age continues to be ridiculed by some of the press and bloggers. Check out this blog (provided by blog fan in a recent post in the comments section): http://www.thingsyoungerthanmccain.com/

However, lest you think McCain is going to roll-over, let's remember one of the most witty comebacks in Presidential election history as 73 year old Ronald Reagan said at the start of his 2nd debate against Walter Mondale in 1984, "I want you to know that also I will not make age an issue of this campaign. I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent's youth and inexperience." This resulted in a roar of laughter from the audience, and, in fact, from Mondale himself, who years later admitted to Jim Lehrer in an interview that he realized at that moment that the election was over. Mondale went on to lose the election decisively, as Reagan carried 49 states, compared to Mondale's one (his home state of Minnesota).

3. Flying "coach" (I mean, "toilet"), as a man allowed on a overbooked flight had to sit in the bathroom on the San Diego to New York flight. He is suing Jet Blue because of his "tremendous fear" without a seatbelt while sitting on the toilet. His he suing despite the pilot informing him that he should feel lucky to be on the plane in the first place. Let's face it, he sure could have gotten a LOT of reading done while sitting on the toilet for that long.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/usa_airline_toilet_dc

Apple is On Fire!

2008-05-12T21:03:00.010-04:00

Folks, if you haven't noticed, Apple's stock has been on a major tear over the past 2 months. It is close to it's all-time high again (all time high was around $200 in December).

I posted the story about the Apple stores being packed back in January (http://cocanuts.blogspot.com/2008/01/word-on-street.html). And, although it initially was demolished along with the rest of the market for the first 10 weeks of 2008, it has made a major comeback.

The major reason for this has got to be the popularity of the iPhone. It is currently sold out on the Apple websites, and stock in the stores have been scant. The new, faster, "3G" iPhone is due out very soon, and customers around the world will be clamoring for it. That's right around the world. Read this article, and you will see that Apple has been inking some new major contracts with wireless providers in Canada, Europe, South America, Turkey, India, Australia, Singapore and the Phillipines. That means millions of new customers and billions of more revenue for Apple.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/TECH/ptech/05/12/iphone.sold.out.ap/index.html

What does mean for the stock? As you know, I have been long of Apple for some time now. It is riding on top of its 10 day moving average (about as bullish as a stock can get). You can see this on the daily chart below (10 day moving average is the green line). You can see the stochastics confirm the very strong price action (RSI at top and MACD at bottom).

I expect Apple to continue a little higher, but I think it will find some resistance at it's all time high of about $200, as you can see on the weekly chart below. After a brief pull back, I think it will probably eventually break that resistance and head towards a price in the mid-250s. On the weekly stochastics, the RSI and MACD are heading up (circled blue areas). You can see that the RSI remained in the "overbought" area (>70) for some time last May through July and then last September and October (blue box). Thus, if the RSI can climb above 70 again, we could see some significant upside to come.

Wiki-Mania

2008-05-12T20:55:00.002-04:00

I am a huge fan of Wikipedia. It has loads of information that is generally quite accurate. Posts by people that are funny or untrue are usually deleted rapidly. There was concern in the past that students in school were simply going to Wikipedia for sources and information for term papers, and most teachers and professors were banning this habit.

However, it appears that there may be a role for Wikipedia in the setting of the academic world. A professor at the University of British Columbia is actually encouraging his students to try to get Wikipedia entries acknowledges as a "featured article".

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080511/tc_afp/canadascienceinternet;_ylt=AhWX2LwIbC3hgzfbbtjSHigDW7oF

Are You Kidding Me?

2008-05-06T23:01:00.002-04:00

I found some of these stories unbelievable:

1. Let it go- John Allen Muhammad, the D.C. area sniper of 2003, is asking his defense attorneys to end the appeals and allow him to die, and is requesting the help of the state attorney general to help him as he has tried without success to stop his defense attorneys from pursuing the appeals.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080506/ap_on_re_us/sniper_appeal;_ylt=AuX1R.GCIaxD_cvsFz.iaAYDW7oF

Please stop wasting taxpayer money on this case. And, although he wants to die, perhaps it would be better to deny him his opportunity at "matyrdom" and let him rot in jail for the rest of his life. Life sentence without parole, that's my vote. Stop the appeals now.

2. Yankees-Red Sox rivalry taken too far- a Yankees fan ran over 2 Red Sox fans in a parking lot after the Sox fans yelled "Yankees suck!" at her outside a bar in New Hampshire. One Sox fan died and the other was injured. This is pathetic...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080506/od_uk_nm/oukoe_uk_usa_crime_yankees_redsox;_ylt=Atn.PNdeUth_4R0WmeYmtQ7tiBIF

3. Wimp- Speaking of the Yankees, A-Rod's wife says that A-Rod passed out during the birth of his 1st child. He always folds under pressure!

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/bba_yankees_rodriguez;_ylt=AgBPEhBVngkDRCP_mTSHNKIDW7oF

4. Wicked leg cramps- A man in Illinois wants to attempt to surpass his recently broken record of continuously exercising for 132 consecutive hours on a stationary bike. This sounds like torture....the leg cramps, sore butt, groin chaffing, and lack of sleep. He is deranged.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080506/ap_on_fe_st/odd_exercise_record;_ylt=Aoip7gSYcvq4pkxpDdz85fTtiBIF

Politics Update

2008-05-06T21:38:00.003-04:00

Barack Obama has been declared the winner in the North Carolina primary, and Hillary Clinton has a slight lead in the Indiana primary. The battle between these two heavyweight contenders continues, despite the Obama and Rev. Wright scandal, and despite Hillary's big deficit in pledged delegates.

But will it all matter who wins the primary? New poll data suggests that John McCain may have an easy time winning the Presidential election because of the polarity within the Democratic party. Here are the facts:

-Nearly six in ten Obama supporters in Indiana say they would be dissatisfied if Clinton were the nominee.
-In both Indiana and North Carolina, 2/3rds of Clinton supporters say they’d be dissatisfied if Obama were the nominee.
-The percentage of Clinton voters who say they’d choose McCain over Obama in a general election is approaching 40 percent in Indiana.

BTW, I recently criticized Clinton and McCain on their proposal for a "gas tax" holiday. It appears that the majority of the writers and economists agree that this is simply a foolish policy.

http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/30/elections-hot-air-and-gas/

http://www.observer.com/2008/bloomberg-gas-tax-break-dumbest-thing

Good Week, Bad Week (May 5th Edition)

2008-05-04T21:33:00.005-04:00

Good week for:

1. Vegetarians, after 260,000 pounds of beef and chicken were recalled for contamination with a potentially deadly bacteria, Listeria monocyotogenes. Veggie burgers have never tasted so good!

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080503/us_nm/usa_meat_recall_dc;_ylt=AuVnLn8NdBMeOlKq5sWtDfADW7oF

2. "Beauty", a wounded bald eagle that had its beak shot off a few years ago and was found starving to death in 2005. After being rescued and hand-fed for 2 years, scientist have designed and crafted Beauty a prosthetic beak. They will attempt to attach it next month. Of note, it is against the law to shoot a bald eagle...hear that Dick Cheney?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080505/ap_on_sc/bionic_beak

3. Flying slower, as airlines have determined that decreasing the flight speed by only 10 MPH, saves between $13-20 million per year in fuel costs. This makes it a bad week for passengers who will have to remain in the cramped confines of coach for about 8 more minutes, on average, on a trans-Atlantic flight.

http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/markets/industries/transportation/airplanes-fly-slower-save-millions/

Bad week for:

1. Going back on your word, as Cardinal Egan was furious with Rudy Giuliani for taking Communion during a Mass celebrated by Pope Benedict XVI on April 19th at St. Patrick's Cathedral, despite a previous agreement between the Church and Mr. Giuliani in 2000 to not receive the sacrament because of his "well-known support of abortion". Rudy has had a tough year when the number of delegates he received equals the number of times he was admonished by the Church.

2. Eight Belles, the 2nd place finisher in the Kentucky Derby, who broke both her ankles after she crossed the finish line. She had to be euthanized on the track.

http://msn.foxsports.com/horseracing/story/8105724/Eight-Belles-

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/columns/story?columnist=forde_pat&id=3382235&sportCat=horse

Horses are bred for speed. Unfortunately their bones and tiny little ankles just have not adapted to endure the stress of the racing at high speeds with the weight of the high muscle mass.

3. Overactive bladders, after researchers found that people taking prescription drugs for bladder dysfunction, allergies, and high blood pressure that block the neurotransmitter acetylcholine experience a more rapid decline in cognitive function than adults of similar age not on these medications. (it makes sense because drugs used to treat Alzheimer's, although only mildly effective, INCREASE acetylcholine levels in the brain).

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080503/hl_nm/elderly_drugs_dc;_ylt=An7pVVTK9CTY.NFspH5kFfIDW7oF
I actually took some loratadine today for my allergies...I hope it dows noet ajgffecbt m&e toooosdooo mujdch...caguya jgo138nm he$pgyp mguh?

PB & J

2008-05-04T21:08:00.004-04:00

Interesting article on Yahoo about the perfect peanut butter and jelly sandwich. The testers compared different types of creamy peanut butter on Pepperidge Farm white bread. They found the 365 Whole Foods Organic brand was the best tasting, compared to Jif, Skippy, and Reese's.

http://food.yahoo.com/blog/edlevineeats/2957/building-the-perfect-pbj-sandwich

The testers also determined that the best ratio of ratio of bread to PB and Jelly is 1 : 0.6 : 0.3 : 1. They have provided a nice illustration if that ratio is confusing to you.

I won't comment on the actual peanut butter, because I have never done a head-to-head comparison. I do have other comments about PB & J:

1. The testers used white bread, but I assure you that the healthier (and I find tastier) way to eat PB & J is on a multi-grain sliced bread (Arnold's 12 grain is great).

2. I agree with the ratio of PB and jelly. In my opinion, ratios are very important in all types of food. For example, the best ratio of cold cuts to cheese in a sandwich is about 3:1. In a burrito, there needs to be an appropriate ratio of meat to rice, beans, and other products. The meat cannot be predominant. For a bowl of cereal, I prefer to pour the milk until it just about touches the top level of the cereal. There needs to be a certain number of chocolate chips in a chocolate chip cookie. The ratio of tuna or chicken to mayo (not sure on the actual numbers) needs to approximate a proportion in which the mayo is only added until enough moisture is there for consistency. Some places overwhelm the tuna or chicken with the mayo and it creates a mess (and a stomach ache).

3. I prefer contrasting the sweetness of PB & J with a salty counterbalance in the form of chips (preferably cheesy-types such as Doritos or Cheetos). Also, a piece of cheddar chesse makes a wonderful compliment to a PB & J sandwich.

4. Peanut butter should not be refrigerated. It makes spreading it very difficult.

5. Does anyone remember the episode of "Happy Days" when Lenny and Squiggy were in some dream sequence, and they were lost in the desert, and the only thing they had with them was peanut butter? They had no water, but Squiggy tried eating the peanut butter anyway, and they couldn't open his mouth. I guess you had to see it, but it was funny.

TF Agrees with Me

2008-04-30T08:07:00.003-04:00

Tom Friedman is one of my favorite writers. Today, in the NYT, he comments on the "Gas Tax Suspension" proposed by Ms. Clinton and Mr. McCain. I commented on it the other day: http://cocanuts.blogspot.com/2008/04/gas-tax-suspension.html.

Friedman bashes this foolish strategy and equates it to "money laundering". Furthermore, he points out on very disturbing fact about our wonderful Congress.

....When Congress passed the 2007 energy bill last December, it failed to extend any
stimulus for wind and solar energy production. Oil and gas kept all their
credits, but those for wind and solar have been left to expire this December. I
am not making this up. At a time when we should be throwing everything into
clean power innovation, we are squabbling over pennies.

And for those of you that don't care about alternative energy at this point, with the economy suffering, etc (although I assure you that the high price of fuel is partially responsible for the contraction in GDP), maybe you will like this fact regarding jobs and investment growth:

If the wind and solar credits expire, said Resch, the impact in just 2009
would be more than 100,000 jobs either lost or not created in these industries,
and $20 billion worth of investments that won’t be made.

Next time you scoff at some type of additional clean energy source, think about it as you pay you home heating bill (oil or nat gas) or fill up your car. A viable fuel source that would be a competitor to oil-derived products would be the only way to get prices down. Until, then OPEC and these fuel-rich countries have us wrapped around their fingers.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/30/opinion/30friedman.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin